The Day Ahead

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Economic Data Highlights:
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Wholesale Sales (May):
Signals business demand.
Weaker = bearish USD, growth worries.
Stronger = supports USD, may lift yields.

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China Inflation (June CPI & PPI):
Key for deflation risks.
Low CPI/PPI = bearish CNY, AUD, metals, more rate cut talk.
Stronger numbers = risk bounce, may lift AUD and commodities.

๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan Machine Tool Orders & Money Supply (M2/M3):
Shows capex and liquidity.
Weak orders = bearish JPY, signs of slowdown.
Limited impact unless there's a surprise.

Central Bank Focus:
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ FOMC Minutes:
Hawkish tone = stronger USD, weaker stocks/gold.
Dovish tone = bullish risk, weaker USD.

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ RBNZ Rate Decision:
Expected hold at 5.50%, but tone matters.
Hawkish = NZD up, especially vs AUD/JPY.
Dovish = NZD drops, AUDNZD could rise.

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ ECBโ€™s Nagel & Guindos:
Watch for rate cut clues.
Dovish = EUR weakens.
Hawkish = EUR support, esp. vs JPY/CHF.

Trade Setups to Watch:
USD trades post-FOMC (DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY).
NZD crosses after RBNZ (NZDUSD, AUDNZD).
AUD & metals reacting to China inflation.
EUR pairs ahead of more ECB talk Thursday.

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