Long

EUR/HUF - buyzone - Long - 1-3mo

By Skill4fun

Updated

Buy in zone: ~404-408 HUF

TP: 445 HUF

SL: 399 HUF

Time interval ~1-3mo

Trade active

still holding it

Note

a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the chart (not the prettiest, but whatever) and on the RSI as a possible sign of a reversal.
Let's see if price can rise above the neckline around 415 HUF

Note

Some fundamental background:

The European Commission has concluded that Budapest has not sufficiently fulfilled its reform promises in the fight against corruption, and will recommend to member states to freeze €7.5 billion from three cohesion programs at its meeting next Wednesday, according to the conservative daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. ( 23.11.2022-13:14)

If the Council adopts the Commission's proposals, it would mean 65 % of the funds for three Hungarian operational programs would be withdrawn from Hungary. This would mean blocking €7.5 billion, or around 3,000 billion HUF, which is around the third of the cohesion funding for the budget period up to 2027.

HUF weakened against the euro on the news.

source: faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/eu-kommission-fuer-harten-kurs-gegen-ungarn-zusagen-nicht-erfuellt-18481762.html

Note

New events that may contribute to the weakening of HUF in the near future.
source: reuters.com/business/energy/...

- BUDAPEST, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Hungary's government scrapped a price cap on fuels on Tuesday after a lack of imports and panic buying led to fuel shortages across the country in the past days that oil and gas group MOL said created a "critical situation.

- Gergely Gulyas (Prime Minister Viktor Orban's chief of staff) said the ending of the price cap will boost inflation but did not give an estimate. Hungary's annual inflation is already running above 21%.

- MOL said earlier on Tuesday that the only solution to alleviate the serious fuel shortage was to create the conditions for increased IMPORTS.

- "About a quarter of our filling stations have run completely out of stock," Hernadi (MOL Chairman and chief executive) said. He said it would take up to two months to restore imports, and stability.

Note

So, the price broke the neckline.
If it remains like this, then the inverse head and shoulders can be considered validate IMO.

background:
Inflation is again at a record high in Hungary: 22.5 percent in November.

source: portfolio.hu/deviza/20221208...
Portfolio writes that after it turned out that the rate of inflation was higher than expected, the forint was unable to recover, and in fact, a new wave of weakening began.

Skill4fun

Also on:

Related publications

EUR/HUF - buyzone - Long

by Skill4fun

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.