Navigating The Market : Simplified #EURJPY Sept 2nd, 2019
The EURJPY had been in a bearish trend. The Yen had been bid due to safe-haven flows thanks to Trump and China trade war. I also believe what is happening in Hong Kong does play it's part as well. Retail sentiment generally bearish on the Yen.
The first thing happened after the Sydney open was price managed to break below and closed under last Friday's low (coincided with last week's low as well), followed by a bullish version of a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (I genuinely forgot what its actually called!). There are plenty of sell stops recorded around the prices between 115.850 to 116.350. I looked at the order books, great % amount of opened buy positions there at 116.650 (the close price of that bullish candle), which I suspect 116.350 price is the averaged stop-loss price (Stoploss is a sell stop for a buy position, vice versa)
Sell orders above market price right now, which logically would be the place for everyone to put their sell stops as well as bearish continuation trade. That's too obvious for me and I bet the institutionals would take advantage of that and take the other side of the trade. Look, it could happen (price reverses at 117.00-117.150, but trading is a numbers game, my personal record of statistics suggest it has higher probability that the price would just break that sell stops above market price)
My game plan is to scalp a long trade if price taps into the sell stop around 116.350 to 115.580. If price continues to go up (without going down further at 116-115.xx) and respects the sell stop at 117.150-117.00, I will re-adjust my plan as that would be the classic continuation pattern for the underlying bearish trend. I do however anticipating the sell stops at 117.xx to be consumed and the price goes higher towards previous Friday's high. I will look to short if/when that happens. A further move higher right now ((without going down further at 116-115.xx) would be too bad because I want to Long EURJPY short term (because, as I've mentioned above, I am bullish Yen - in other words, bearish EURJPY) but i'm more comfortable if it taps into the liquidity pool.
The first thing happened after the Sydney open was price managed to break below and closed under last Friday's low (coincided with last week's low as well), followed by a bullish version of a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (I genuinely forgot what its actually called!). There are plenty of sell stops recorded around the prices between 115.850 to 116.350. I looked at the order books, great % amount of opened buy positions there at 116.650 (the close price of that bullish candle), which I suspect 116.350 price is the averaged stop-loss price (Stoploss is a sell stop for a buy position, vice versa)
Sell orders above market price right now, which logically would be the place for everyone to put their sell stops as well as bearish continuation trade. That's too obvious for me and I bet the institutionals would take advantage of that and take the other side of the trade. Look, it could happen (price reverses at 117.00-117.150, but trading is a numbers game, my personal record of statistics suggest it has higher probability that the price would just break that sell stops above market price)
My game plan is to scalp a long trade if price taps into the sell stop around 116.350 to 115.580. If price continues to go up (without going down further at 116-115.xx) and respects the sell stop at 117.150-117.00, I will re-adjust my plan as that would be the classic continuation pattern for the underlying bearish trend. I do however anticipating the sell stops at 117.xx to be consumed and the price goes higher towards previous Friday's high. I will look to short if/when that happens. A further move higher right now ((without going down further at 116-115.xx) would be too bad because I want to Long EURJPY short term (because, as I've mentioned above, I am bullish Yen - in other words, bearish EURJPY) but i'm more comfortable if it taps into the liquidity pool.
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