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Current Price & Spread** | **162.176 / 162.20
| **Timestamp (EST)** | 2025-04-29 01:20 |
| **Risk-Level Tag** | **Medium-High** – trading near yearly highs ahead of key EUR data |
| **Bias Checklist** | HTF trend ✅ | confluence ✅ | fundamentals ⚠️ |
| **Confidence Label** | **Technical High / Event-Risk Medium → Overall High** |
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### 1️⃣ Technical Outlook
* **Multi-TF Trend (W1/D1/H4)** – **Bullish** (higher highs since Nov-24). Price pressing the 2025 top-of-range. ([EUR JPY Chart – Euro Yen Rate -
* **Structure & Liquidity** –
* **Support**: 161.60-161.30 (H4 OB + prior swing).
* **Resistance**: 162.80 (Feb-25 high) → next liquidity **163.70-164.00** (2024 peak) ([EUR/JPY slips below 163.00 as trade-related uncertainties benefit ...]
* **Momentum Scan** – Weekly RSI 68 (near overbought); Daily MACD positive but histogram flattening (momentum pause). ([EUR JPY Chart – Euro Yen Rate - TradingView]
* **Volume** – Monday’s EU session candle closed 22 % above its 20-day avg tick volume (breakout confirmation).
([EUR/JPY slips below 163.00 as trade-related uncertainties benefit
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### 2️⃣ Primary Alert Zones
| Zone | Price | Type | Setup Idea 📝 |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Pullback Demand** | **161.60-161.30** | H4 OB + 50 DMA | M15 bullish engulf + > 20 % vol |
| **Breakout Supply** | **162.80-163.00** | Feb swing-high | Scale-out / watch false-break |
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### 3️⃣ Indicators Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Read-out |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (H4) | 64 | bullish but near hot zone |
| MACD (D1) | >0, hist ↓ | waning momentum |
| ATR 14 (1 h) | **≈ 21 pips** (7-day avg)
| IG Sentiment | **~62 % short** (contrarian bullish)
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### 4️⃣ Fundamental & Sentiment Radar
* **Tue 02:00** – German CPI flash (EUR).
* **Tue 05:00** – EZ flash GDP & HICP.
* **Thu Japan** – Tokyo CPI (early BoJ inflation gauge).
* **BoJ Outlook** – Next policy mtg ≙ Jun 13; officials jawboning JPY strength → risk of verbal intervention.
* **COT (22 Apr)** – Funds **net-long EUR / net-short JPY** → structural tail-wind. ([1st - macd trend following strategy -
### 5️⃣ Market Drivers & Black-Out Windows
* **No new entries** ± 6 h around EZ flash GDP
(Tue) & Tokyo CPI (Thu 19:30 EST).
* Peak volatility sessions:
London 03-05 EST** &
NY 08-11 EST**;
Asia lunch lull 01-02:30 EST.
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### 6️⃣ Trade Considerations (BEES v2)
* **Preferred Play** –
**Retest-long** 161.60-161.30 with M15 bullish engulf + ≥ 20 % vol spike.
* **SL** = 1.5 × ATR ≈ **32 pips** (≈ 161.28).
* **TP1** = 2 R (162.20)
**TP2** = 3 R (162.52)
Trail toward 163.70.
### 7️⃣ Execution Checklist ✅
☑ HTF trend aligned ☑ Volume > 20 % ☑ Outside red-flag news
☑ Confidence ≥ High ☑ Price not inside ±50 pip HTF S/R
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### 8️⃣ Scenario Planner
| Path | Description | RR | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|
| **A – Continuation** | Break & hold > 162.80 → 163.70 | 1 : 3 | Aggressive |
| **B – Retest Hold** | Dip 161.60 → grind up to 162.50 | 1 : 2 | Balanced |
| **C – Failure** | Daily close < 161.00 flips bias short | – | Defensive |
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### ✅ Final Recommendation
**Directional Bias:** **Long-biased while ≥ 161.30.**
**Go / No-Go:** **YES – 8.5 / 10.** Let price confirm the pullback; manage around Tuesday’s euro data; tighten stops if Tokyo CPI surprises.
**Mindset Reminder:** Don’t chase highs; respect your 1 % risk cap and news blackout windows.
Trade closed: target reached
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.