Short

EUR/JPY - Short; SELL right here!

By Nemo_Confidat

Updated

Probably one (in not "The") best long term Shorts out there.

Here is the Long Term;

Note

Here is an other look;

Trade closed manually

Lower the Stop to 1.44488 because of this;

Also, looking to switch to a GBP/USD LONG, for the premier FX trade.

Note

Trade closed: target reached

Well, ...

This worked out rather well.
Now, onto the next leg ...

Note

Sell right here!

SHORT Target: 142.50
(This will likely be a painfully slow descent.)

Note

An other chance to go Short here ...

... if one hasn't, yet.

Note

It's probably going to ...

... hit that Stop Hunt @145.25, before going into the final dive.

Trade closed: target reached

Trade active

Try to turn around here - narrow Stops ...

... for +50 pips on top side. Long

Trade closed: target reached

This worked nicely, too.

Tighten Stops and we're gunning for that 144.83 Stop Hunt to bail out of these longs.
Daily profit. so far. +140 pips
Just remember, we are looking to end up SHORT in here so, beside exiting these longs here, one is looking to turn around, once again, to go Short!
(Of course, this has to do something first here, in that yellow box on the chart, to get a Short Signal!)

Note

Boom!!
A perfect hit on that Stop Hunt to get Short

1 day total = +180 pips (while total market move = 35 pips)
... and we are loaded Short - with narrow Stops in this PRZ, (... and the main move is still ahead! :-)

Trade active

OK, turned around here one more time and went LONG (but take it easy!) ...

... looking to sell it off, once again, in the 144.60s - That next Stop Hunt above - for the final SHORT Entry.

Note

Back to SHORTs

This thing is headed down!

Note

Looking for completion of that next cypher ...

... about to go Short (for the next 50 pips) as this should drop onto the 800 Ema. All marked on the chart

Note

Going SHORT, here!

Any reversal will do for a Short Entry.

Note

Boom!! SHORT

See ya'll @142.50 :-)

Trade closed: target reached

FLAT, for now;

If it reacts here then we'll let it come back a bit before reloading Short.
+238, so far, we've cleared here, up to this point!
230 more to go ... :-)

Note

The next page from the playbook;

Trade closed: target reached

Squeezed out yet an other 35 pips here.

FLAT, for now. Looking to load SHORT here, soon!

Trade active

Obviously, everybody is already heavily SHORT here, ...

... Right?!

Note

Be careful here!!

Note

This is certainly Not a Short here!!

LONG

Note

Ought to be still LONG here ...

... BUT not much longer. (Chart)

Note

Just a reminder;

Switching to the CAD/JPY LONG here. (Which is expected to be a superior performer very soon.) ALL CAD Pairs are turning thus, a lot of SHORT Setups in those!

Trade active

Talk about a massive resistance here;

SHORT

Trade active

SHORT

Note

Just a cleaner version of the chart. - SHORT

Trade active

Talk about the perfect entry;

An absolutely massive, no-holds-barred SHORT!

Note

Japanese GDP & Inflation numbers just blew away the estimates, to the upside!

This is a very, very long term SHORT since just as Europe is dying(already finished, actually and irreversibly!) Japan is gaining it's stride, consistently.

Trade active

Note

This one has turned Bearish ...

...on the 15 min chart, as of an hour ago. IFF it breaks down here (61.8% retracement) then it's done, for good.

Note

Since ...
Japanese Yen Steadies After Strong Inflation Data
tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency

Japanese Shares Hit Near 33-Year Highs
tradingeconomics.com/japan/stock-market

Japan Core Inflation Rises to 3.4% in April
tradingeconomics.com/japan/core-inflation-rate

Japan Food Prices Rise the Most Since 1976
tradingeconomics.com/japan/food-inflation

... it begs the question; Will the BoJ release (yield) curve controls and stop distorting the markets, for good?
Answer; If there ever was a fair chance for it, in the past 30 years, this is it!
(In which case expect a Yen rally in the range of 20,000-25,000 pips.)

Note

This RSI Divergence ...

... looks rather Bearish - as does that widening top.

Note

OK, you guys convinced me ;-) ...

... This is Not a Short, anymore! (At least for now.)
Everyone in retail seems to like a Short here, so much so that Retail Shorts (C.O.T) have risen by +28%, to 89%, during the past 3 days alone. That ought to be a giant warning sign for everyone!
This market will have to show me something before I load up on it, one way or the other. (... and by the looks of it that will most likely be Long.)
It's a wait-and-see ...

Note

--- which brings immediately the next obvious question;
"Just how big of a 'spike' should one expect in the event the BoJ raises the long term bond yield even just by 0.25%? - to it's next target level" ...
The answer is easily calculated:

Answer; 700 pips in a single day, very likely, and a total of 1,300-1,500 pips, total, over a following period, measured in weeks.

Note

Just as a guidance;

This is how the most recent BoJ decision worked out.
The maximum Beta (main move) lasted 122 minutes!! (All shorts following that had essentially a very negative R/R. - And they all ended up losing money.)

Note

(Since people have been asking: "Why the volatility?" ...)
A gentle reminder:
Japan is by far the world's largest creditor, in excess of $3 TRILLION in foreign bond holdings. (More than China, more than Germany!) A whole 18% of these are French government, alone!
Any interest rate shit/hike here will likely prompt a Global sell off in government securities, the likes that have never been seen before! Such a move will also likely collapse the Euro.
We are counting on something like this happening, and hopefully soon ;-)
Keep the powder dry because when it happens, it should be Spectacular!!

Trade closed: target reached

Bailed on this, probably for good - for now? ...

FLAT

Note

This is Not a suggestion to buy it here;

... rather a warning that they will Stop Hunt this, at the very minimum, before/IFF it turns around off of the 150.00.

Note

Just an observation;
The BoJ's Pres. Ueda is not entirely wrong when said (over the weekend) that "inflation in not a factor in the BoJ's policy guidance.". Not necessarily because that statement in itself is true but rather because even a quick a back-of-the-envelop calculation shows that any "policy adjustment" - i.e., rate hike - here would "un-invert" US & EU yield curves, prompting a massive Gov. securities dump, world wide.
And since there must be a buyer for every seller ... A (very) conservative estimate in such a move would cost Japan $600-$800 Billion, on day one! (Very, very conservatively. A more precise estimate would put this number well in excess of $1 Trillion.) So, a Cost/Benefit analysis, under the present circumstances, makes such a move questionable - arguably Neutral - when global rates are sitting smack in the middle of even the widest, reasonably predicted rate range (0.5-7.5%), going forward.

Trade active

This is starting to wick here;

SHORT

Note

Loaded up SHORT off of the Stop Hunt - marked erroneously above; Ma bad!

Risking 0.8% of capital here, which is what this is worth here. Will this hold?? ...

Trade closed: stop reached

Got pushed out for -6 pips.

But this struggling here! Now, SELL Stops under it.

Trade active

An other try for SHORT;

Note

Now it's up to you ...

... if to continue to ride it with the 6 pip stop or (gun shy? ;-) lower it to Even Money.

Note

Here is the 30 min chart;

No guarantees but at least we're getting a "free ride" here ;-)
The longs' pivot is @149.885 (only 4 pips above). Anything can happen here ...

Note

If you were "gun shy" and lowered the Stops to Even Money, you probably got stopped out. If you hang in there with the original 6 pip stop, you're still in it - Short. (It came close, though, within 2 pips ;-)

Note

Trade closed: target reached

Initial Target reached. What one does here depends entirely on one's time horizon. (Whether this is a long term Short Entry attempt or just a quick hit-and-run? ... The jury is well out on the former.)

Note

This is obviously breaking out here ...

... and 153.00 is all but a forgone conclusion.
We have collected (144 + 51 - 6) = +189 pips this week between this and the USDJPY.(arguably with some more work than would've been absolutely necessary ;-)
This is an inferior long, especially compared to the USDJPY, but nevertheless tradable if one so desires.

Trade active

A quick try - SHORT;

for -50 pips with, 8 pip stop.

Note

Lowered Stops to even money to long pivot @150.7750. (Which is all this is worth here -, i.e. a free try.)

Note

Move Stops along/on Black Curve.

Note

OK; +20 pips into it ...

... we're in OK shape. Continue to manage it accordingly. (Remember, this was just a "free try" - Short - for some fast cash, so don't read too much into it!)

Trade closed: target reached

There's our +50 pips!! - Target reached.

Now,, this doesn't mean that we just blindly book our profits and close out the entire position here.
How one manages the trade from here, again, much depends on one's aims with this trade! Thus, manage it accordingly. (Take some money off or, set some dynamic stops - along the black line; 22 pips at present - etc., etc ...)
In any event, this is what's meant by "fast money". (50+ pips in just over an hour.) AND this was a 1 : 5 Risk/Reward situation, from the get go - which is why we took this trade, in the first place.

Note

This is what the trade looked like on the Hourly;

Almost identical to the trade, we took last Thursday. (Even down to the pips ;-)
That was +51 pips and here, we grabbed an almost identical +50 pips.
Just to sum it up;
Profit Total +101 pips, in 2 trades (5 days apart). The first had a 6:1 and this recent trade a 5:1 Risk/Reward Ratio. Total, maximum risk - combined - was 8 pips.
The 2 trades took 105 minutes, total. (Which is what was meant by the earlier comment last Thur.: "Just trade it!")

Note

(Since people have been asking ... )
The above two (short) trades are typical of what is available in a strong bull market - and only there, i.e., when prices are rallying! One simply looks for a place where the longs have their (temporary) pivots and then just lie in wait until the price drops down from above. (Near those price points there is almost always a reaction, leaving plenty of time to get in - load up short.) E.g., these trades are usually very low risk (under 10 pip stops) and they almost always present themselves (and conclude) very quickly. I.e., It's "free money", usually with rather favorable 1:5 - 1:12 Risk/Reward ratios built in. (If the R/R is less favorable, we do Not take the trade.)

Trade active

All Yen crosses are a Short, for now, but this one

has the best potential mileage! SHORT

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out for -8 pips;

Trade active

Still the best R/R of the Yen crosses;

'SHORT

Note

This is just a quick reminder what to expect from this pair - EUR/JPY;

In broad strokes, a -20% decline would be well within reason in a year's time.
Current capital flows are already inline with the projected numbers. (EU -> Japan $1.7 Trillion, annualized, accelerating at the rate of 5.6% MoM!)
I.e., The fundamentals are already aligning with the technical picture, quite convincingly. (... and that -20% is just the immediate, one year projection, with much more likely to follow! The total "imbalance" - capital in the process of relocation - is in excess of $6.5 Trillion - more than twice the total, global credit extended by the BoJ.)
Also, the only viable road China could take from this point is a gradual, total "Japanification", without prompting a total and abject collapse of the economy. (Such a process, even if successful(?) is measurable in decades. The jury will remain out, for years, whether the CCP could pull off such a transition and survive, at all?? ...) All in all, Japan is now in it's best economic position of the past 40 years! (Underlined by their recent inflation numbers.)

Trade active

All indications are pointing towards a tumultuous summer!

E.g. the 140.00 target, sometime before the end of August, coincides well with both, the current fundamental, as well as technical picture. SHORT

Trade closed manually

Bailed on this one - FLAT

... with a small +18 pip profit for now, because the Yen is showing signs for the beginning of a potentially major move. Let's see how that plays out first! (We should know either way in a couple hours, by the looks of it.)

Note

Trade active

Bought that Stop Hunt (pin bar). - LONG

... with very tight stops (7 pips).

... because of this;

So far, that previous Stop Hunt @148.70 was just that. E.g., this can turn here, at least temporarily.
Overall, this remains firmly a Short Bias, one just hopes to load up on this much closer to 150.

Note

Moved stops to Even Money, @148.675. (Don't expect much out of this rather, just looking for a temporary rally for better short entries.)

Note

Already, we seem to be in good shape here!

That pin bar buy held up nicely and there is now >20 pips in bookable profits.
This position has quite a bit of mileage left in it so, just let it run, for now.

Note

This has been following themarrows, right on! (For once ;-)

Staying LONG after this second entry, for now.

Note

If all goes well ...

... this is what we're looking for.
(Then it's probably time to start a new thread as this one is getting rather long.)

Note

--- here is a Summary of what one did within this thread ---

Number of (calendar) days: 56
Total number of trades: 17
Number of winners: 12
Number of losers: 5
Total maximum risk: 0.08% of capital (12 pips maximum at all times. No need to risk any more, ever!)
Total Profit: +758 pips
Total (cumulative) loss: -34 pips
Average Risk/Reward Ratio: 1 : 6.75
----------------------------------------------------
p.s. Missed most of the "big moves" - mostly due to a strong Short Bias, which was obviously a mistake - and thus, ended up trading against the trend in the majority of instances. Will try better, next time.
Cheers

Nemo_Confidat

Also on:

Related publications

EUR/USD Short; SELL here! Doesn't get any easier than this.

by Nemo_Confidat

USD/JPY - Short; SELL right here!

by Nemo_Confidat

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.