Long

Updated

Odd Geo Forming In $EUR v. $NZD | #ECB #RBNZ #kiwi #euro #forex

Friends,

Nothing is what is seems, and this could not be any more true regarding the Geo.

As we stack up our lessons for this past 24-hour period (that'd be the 5th lesson on occult geometry, Wolfe Wave, Geo - All the while offering a target on LIVE trades and charting), here is a rare case of an unusual Geo, in which only a select few features have been used to establish a probable target.

First, the target is defined as a probable range, namely: 1.80212/1.80004.

Second, the Geo lacks its conditional Leg 1-2 symmetrical ab = cd recirocity. However, what it lacks in its initial set of conditions, it is making it up by keeping the remainder of the conditions whole and true, such that the complexity of the 2-3 Leg in terms of Elliott Wave's TZZ formation, a 3-4 ZZ connection, as well as the Geo Anchoring (green star), which has been used to define the 1-4 Target Line.

Third, let's lok back in the history of this chart and appreciate the current price level, falling in line with significant price behaviors, such as bar-switche and, R/S levels - Considering that current price level rests at this line, it would be worth questioning the motivation of bulls at this time.

If indeed, there were to be a reversal, then a simple ab = cd projection might help define a possible point of repose ... Turns out that this level comes in near alignment with the Geo's own 1-3 Line. and 1-5' Line.

OVERALL:

Consider letting price float to the geometric convergence defined above. A 50% retracement shoud then be considered, nt only as it would meet the dynamic 1-4 Target Line, but also because this 50% Fib level rests in line with a prior significant structural high, as Point-2 of the Geo.

A RSI correlation in terms of probable retracement at current price level comes materially as an overhead resistance against this indicator's own trendline - Worth heeding.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

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Note

30 OCT 2015 - Following is a cut/paste from "17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update" forward - This is done so that the "Update Status" remains easy to appreciate the frame-by-frame evaluation of the analyses, whereas the discussion thread remains a place in which to bring in each of the chart for ease of discussion:

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17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

David Alcindor

25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As we close the week, we are left with a 4th wave still on progress. Internals are suspiciously reminiscent of a developing DZ or TZ (favoring a TZ, as the last internal wave of the Triple Zigzag will require an elongation to the upside, towards a level that nears the prediction as outlined in the DAILY chart, namely the 1.827/1.840 range).

Here is what the chart looks like at this time of market closure:

David Alcindor

ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

Looking at the H4 chart, here is how technical converging elements might point to a top and further confirm the defined range as a probable reversal level:

1 - Fibonacci cluster of 1.414 x 1.618 using internal structures of a developing correct

2 - Development of a Geo, with its 5-point plot edging towards the predefined 1.84071/1.82779 range, labelled "Bearish Entrenchment" from which a significant bear-bull battle is expected to occur.

As you may recall, the Geo has the following internal requirements:

1 - The 1-2 Leg is a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
2 - The 2-3 Leg is a complex zig-zag, typically taking on the form of a DZ or TZ
3 - The 3-4 Leg is a simple ZZ
4 - The 4-5 Leg is expected to be corrective in nature, although both 2-3 and 4-5 legs can exist as impulse if moving in the same direction as the market (rarer exceptions).

Have a fantastic week-end and be safe.

David Alcindor

01 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

First, a few changes in the plotting of the geometries:
- Geo converted to a Wolfe Wave, as the 2-4 Line failed to maintained price within the parallels
- As a result of above, Point-1 has been adjusted to the higher structure

Second, on a technical note:
- A 1.618 Fib extension approximates the level of projected support as this geometry completes
- A rallying above the 1-3 Line remains the interest here.

David Alcindor

01 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

David Alcindor

02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

David Alcindor

QUERY/CHART UPDATE:
ChetanFX 2 days ago
Hi David, any updates on this idea?

Hello ChetanFX - Thank you for the reminder.

However, there is no interim change as far as targets are concerns. I had expected a sightly higher retracement into the bearish resistance area before falling. It fell, but this occurred with little resistance from bears.

Here is the chart as of now:

I will update it if something counter-trend to the expected direction occurs.

Thank you,

David

ADDENDUM:

... ChetanFX - Most threatening to current bearish targets is this developing Geo:

David Alcindor

============================
This is the end of the cut/paste segment - All other inputs will represent up-to-date analysis and commentary.

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

30 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

In the following DAILY chart , the Geo continues to threaten with its 5-point cycle completion. This would bring price into new, loftier territories:

In contrast, the same DAILY chart brings up the Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish targets, which remains in force - Note in the chart that the BEARISH ENTRENCHMENT, which was expected out of the Model, remains unanswered, as well as a 5th Elliott Wave by way of trucation:

As pointed out in prior analyses, the Model is great at defining targets, but not at providing a mechanism of access, or a probable pathway to these targets, which is why I had looked for a different (non-quantitative method) and found the Geo as an alternate and rule-bound geometry of high-probability, which I now often use as background method of visualizing a probable mechanism of access to foreground Model's targets.

OVERALL, I would have to lean towards the probability of further price ascent, so that this 5-cycle completion be satisfied, but also as a means of rationalizing a probable descent as this is what the Point-5 of the Geo would require.

Lengthy explanation, but I hope this makes sense to the traders familiar with this 2-step method.

David Alcindor

Note

26 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

In terms of foreground event, Predictive/Forecasting Model's target remain intact and in force, as price breaks through 1.616 support and opens floor to bearish targets:

In terms of background geometry, the Geo remains a defining - albeit pending completion - feature:

David Alcindor

Note

06 DEC 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As per prior tech-note, pending completion appears to have occurred, while price carves higher highs ... Forecast remains intact and in force:

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

CORRECTION: Above entry date should read 06 JAN 2016, and not 06 DEC 2016 ... Getting used to the new calendar.

David

Note

06 JAN 2016 - Tech-Note:

There remains a downward risk at the DAILY level worth heeding here ... A break below the recent structure-low (pink square at arrow) would expose price to predictive targets. I have a LONG position at 1.59085 already, but a tight SL is a must at these frames.

David

Note

26 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

In the DAILY chart, price remains tethered to dashed forecast line. Watch for this Point-4 of the Geo, as it remains the most fluid:

Overall, directional probability remains favorable to bulls.

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

28 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As per nature of the Geo's Point-4, it is one element of this reliable geometry that will keep on moving until its final place of residence.

Those who have followed the free public lessons I have posted over the years, the Geo may well be one of the most detailed emphasis on the importance of getting things right - For instance, the concept of "tunneling" represents a conditional feature in most of the Geo's internal geometric completion.

In the case of this , we thought that Point-4 was "it" when we posted 4 months ago (26 FEB 2016) this alignment. However, it appears that the geometry was still in its development, and that the alignment that was perceived as right and correct in February was simply incidental.

At this time, we have the following chart, which is likely to represent the last point of repose for Point-4, not only because of the redressed alignment of the tunneling, but also because Point-4 comes as close as it is "tolerable", relative to the 1-3-Line projection off of Point-2 (in fine dots), corresponding to the "Tolerance Line" which if breached would invalidate the entire geometry.

At this point, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact and in force, and the supportive geometry is suggesting that it is unlikely that price would adversely exourse any further down, without having to jeopardize, and thus invalidate, the entire forecast.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Note

28 JUN 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Added in the price field is the larger reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, coming into alignment with the speculated 5-Point geometry which defines the Geo:

David Alcindor

4xForecaster

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