Short

EURNZD Weekly bigger picture outlook

Updated

Price broke below the neckline of a larger Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern is now making a first retest of the break. It also pierced the bottom of a larger Pitchfork defined by April/August-15 low/high and Feb-2017 low. The high in Mar-2020 looks like the culmination of a 3 waves structure, irrespective of if we count from the April-15 or Feb-17 low. So it looks like it's all downhill from here even if I don't exclude that the back test of H&S neckline can go a bit higher, probably not beyond 1.6390 but 1.6350 or below as a more likely turning point. If I'm correct and we break down from here, at some point later I expect a more proper/serious retest of the neckline and pitchfork bottom. If that test is successful, then we will go much much lower compared to where we are today.

Note

Bigger picture develops as expected, although we are not quite clear of the neckline yet. For the coast to be clear opening up for a deeper downside we need to take out the smaller demand zone between 1.6139 and 1.6161, but I would still be happy to sell into any decent pullback here to have with me when that time comes.

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EURNZD short on dovish ECB and hawkish RBNZ

Note

I think this is the most important view in this pair right now. Elliott Wave counting aside, the focus is on this daily support zone, whether it will break or not? I'd be surprised if we broke out of it before Thursday's ECB meeting, but it will very likely trigger it and I would say there is 80% chance for a break lower in which case not much stands in the way for 1.45. If it fails we may soon be back at 1.72 before a new run lower. I'm confident that the run lower will come though.

Note

Significant bearish move and close in this pair! It move and closed below the Sep 2017 low of 1.6144, with a Daily and Weekly as well as Monthly candle. It also broke and closed below the trend-line anchored in the lows of Apr 2015 and Feb 2017 with same trifecta of candles, and by that it also broke out of the larger pitchfork channel anchored in same lows and Aug 2015 high. Almost needless to say as shown on the chart, it also broke and closed below the neckline of the larger H&S pattern, with a measured target of 1.2640. I don't know if we will get there but in any case I expect a sizeable move the coming week(s), possibly after a smaller pullback,retest first

Note

Price has been struggling to find momentum around current levels now for 2 weeks, even though it broke and closed below the neckline of the larger H&S pattern. The RBNZ meeting is in 1 1/2 week, with an expected rate hike. Although that is said to have been "price in" we haven't really seen it reflected in the price.

To really gain momentum a break and close below the 1.6140/6165 support zone is needed and it remains to be seen if that may happen before RBNZ or not.

viking-EW

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