EURUSD Top-Down Analysis-Bearish
Updated
Taking into account that the higher timeframes dictates the price movement I started to analyze
the Monthly and Weekly chart first.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zRD8j2Ki/
On the 30m chart the trend is bearish but we can take longs on 15m chart until the Supply zone on 30m is reached.
Then we will need to wait for either a confirmation that the trend will continue bearish or a change of structure to confirm the bullish continuation on 4h.
the Monthly and Weekly chart first.
- I noticed that on Monthly the order flow is Bearish and that we are right now in a Supply Zone.
- On Weekly the price Changed the Structure from the big monthly Supply by liquidating a Structural Low.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zRD8j2Ki/
- I dropped down on the 4h chart to see what the price is doing inside the weekly Supply Zone.
- On 4h chart the trend is still bullish but can confirm the bearish continuation by closing below the structural low.
On the 30m chart the trend is bearish but we can take longs on 15m chart until the Supply zone on 30m is reached.
Then we will need to wait for either a confirmation that the trend will continue bearish or a change of structure to confirm the bullish continuation on 4h.
Note
Update on 4h chart !!! The price had a big Sweep of liquidity below the Structural Low. This does not mean that the trend has shifted yet because the candle did not close below the low.
But taking into account that
1. The weekly Trend is Bearish
2.We are inside a Weekly Supply Zone and there is a high change of a reaction from this Supply Zone
3. There is a lot of Imbalance lower that needs to be filled
I can say that the chances of going bearish are around 75%
Note
On 15m chart we can see the "V" movement that the price had after liquidating the low.I notice that the Asia liquidity was not taken and actually created equal highs around the 30m Supply Zone.
If the recent 15m high is liquidated I am looking for longs until we reach the 30m Supply Zone.
Then I will be waiting to see what the price is doing either continuing the bearish trend or changing the structure by closing above that high.
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