Euro / U.S. Dollar
Long

EURUSD Insight

155
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The U.S. non-farm employment index and unemployment rate have been announced. While the non-farm employment index exceeded expectations, the figures for April and May were significantly revised downwards. The June unemployment rate was announced at 4.1%, exceeding the expected 4.0%. Concerns are growing that the job market is cooling, and signs of an economic slowdown are becoming more evident. This has led to expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Meanwhile, the ECB has kept the possibility of a rate cut open but emphasized the need for more time to assess the uncertainties surrounding the inflation path. Therefore, an additional rate cut is unlikely at the July meeting.

- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech is scheduled for July 10.

- The UK’s May GDP and the U.S. June Consumer Price Index will be released on July 11.

- The U.S. Producer Price Index will be released on July 12.

- The U.S. June Retail Sales will be released on July 16.

- The Eurozone’s June Consumer Price Index will be released on July 17.

EUR/USD is rapidly rising and is expected to test the resistance of the high once again. This high is expected to be in the 1.090001.09100 range, and resistance at this range is expected to push the price downwards. With the U.S. Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Chairman Powell’s speech scheduled this week, volatility is expected to be maximized, and as a result, the resistance of the high may be broken. However, according to the current chart, it is expected that resistance at the 1.090001.09100 range will cause a decline to the 1.04500 line.

If the resistance at the high is broken contrary to the current expected downward movement, we will quickly adjust our strategy.

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