EUR/USD BIG PICTURE AND BIG FIGURES
TECHNICALS: .618 - .786 fibo zones key
FUNDAMENTALS
Fundamentally, the Fed’s wait and see approach suggests further easing of monetary policy will most likely be in the form of coordinated CB efforts upon indications of a massive global growth slowdown. EOY GDP numbers are likely to provide a clearer picture for global growth atm and future prospects. The US economy, with GDP coming largely from consumer spending, EOY GDP and 2021 forecasts will be largely impacted by US fiscal policy – as in the breadth and depth of federally funded stimuli for both individuals and small businesses.
Monetary policy will be coordinated, swift, and broad by the US FED and other CBs in an intensive loosening effort to prop up global markets – one of the US FED’s global mandates being ensuring stability for global markets – ensures the printing presses will be running nonstop providing liquidity at unseen levels resulting in increased USD supply and concurrent downside pressure on the greenback against most other currencies.
The question is will US fiscal policy equal the breadth of monetary policy easing likely to ensue in 2021 as both must be in sync in order to prevent a major global economic downturn or standstill.
EUR/USD LONG BIG PICTURE FOR BIG FIGURES
Utilizing key fibo levels for risk management purposes by
• Layering limit long entries on a test of broken trendline support for half a position just below 1.16 big figure at 1.1580 and another half a position at .618 fibo (2002 uptrend) around 1.1430 for avg rate of 1.1505 on the bid
• Targeting intersecting .618 fibo levels of the entire move lower from 2008 highs (alongside .618 fibo level of May 2011) at 1.3884 for a 24 big figure move
• With stops at below the 1.10 big figure at around 1.0910 provides positive r/r value of almost 5:1
For more about my trading approach - fxtradermagazine.com/forex-strategy/fusing-fundamental-and-technical-approaches.php
- On the uptrend starting 2002 - the pullback finally reversed course above trendline support after finding a bottom at the .618/.786 fibo zone
- For the downtrend starting 2008, multiple smaller waves as seen in consecutive monthly big figure moves posting aggregate losses in EUR/USD of at minimum 20 big figure retraced up to the .618/.786 fibo zones of their respective declines before continuing lower while also providing great short entries for trend followers
FUNDAMENTALS
Fundamentally, the Fed’s wait and see approach suggests further easing of monetary policy will most likely be in the form of coordinated CB efforts upon indications of a massive global growth slowdown. EOY GDP numbers are likely to provide a clearer picture for global growth atm and future prospects. The US economy, with GDP coming largely from consumer spending, EOY GDP and 2021 forecasts will be largely impacted by US fiscal policy – as in the breadth and depth of federally funded stimuli for both individuals and small businesses.
Monetary policy will be coordinated, swift, and broad by the US FED and other CBs in an intensive loosening effort to prop up global markets – one of the US FED’s global mandates being ensuring stability for global markets – ensures the printing presses will be running nonstop providing liquidity at unseen levels resulting in increased USD supply and concurrent downside pressure on the greenback against most other currencies.
The question is will US fiscal policy equal the breadth of monetary policy easing likely to ensue in 2021 as both must be in sync in order to prevent a major global economic downturn or standstill.
EUR/USD LONG BIG PICTURE FOR BIG FIGURES
Utilizing key fibo levels for risk management purposes by
• Layering limit long entries on a test of broken trendline support for half a position just below 1.16 big figure at 1.1580 and another half a position at .618 fibo (2002 uptrend) around 1.1430 for avg rate of 1.1505 on the bid
• Targeting intersecting .618 fibo levels of the entire move lower from 2008 highs (alongside .618 fibo level of May 2011) at 1.3884 for a 24 big figure move
• With stops at below the 1.10 big figure at around 1.0910 provides positive r/r value of almost 5:1
For more about my trading approach - fxtradermagazine.com/forex-strategy/fusing-fundamental-and-technical-approaches.php
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