Hey everyone, Skeptic here! Let’s start this Friday morning with a fresh EUR/USD analysis—some juicy setups are waiting! 😊 Our previous long position after the 1.13485 resistance break turned out to be a fake breakout, hitting our stop loss. But the short trigger I mentioned below 1.12676 activated, hitting a 2:1 R/R with a safe stop loss. Now, we’ve seen a pullback to that broken level, and if the trend continues, we can find more solid triggers. Stick with me to break it all down! Let’s start with the Daily Timeframe. 📊
📅 Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
The upward channel on the daily chart has finally broken, and when we talk about a channel break, we don’t mean a weak one—this was confirmed by two strong bearish candles. We might see a pullback to the channel, but if not, a break below the 1.12006 support could send us into a deeper correction toward 1.08454. To confirm a full trend reversal, we’d need to see lower highs and lower lows on the daily.
So, with this in mind, it’s smarter to take positions in lower timeframes (like 4H or below) in the direction of the current bearish momentum to boost your win rate and R/R. Let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe for the actionable setups.
⏰ 4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
After a prolonged box range and a fake breakout above the box’s ceiling, the price has now broken lower and is pulling back. For our short setup, we already have a position open from above at 1.12676. But after a break of 1.12012 (which aligns with daily support), we can add to our position—with proper capital and risk management, of course.
Another confirmation for the short? The RSI entering oversold territory can be a solid signal. Why oversold? We need tools to gauge momentum, like SMA, RSI, or volume (though volume only works well in crypto since forex volume isn’t transparent due to bank transactions, etc. In crypto, every transaction is recorded, so volume is reliable). RSI is one of my go-to tools for spotting momentum shifts, and it’s been a profit machine for me. But remember: oscillators and indicators aren’t entry signals—they’re confirmations for the setups we’re trading. Want to learn more? I could drop a few YouTube videos on RSI alone—it’s worth the deep dive! 📚
For a long setup, we’d need a return to the box range and a break above resistance at 1.13740 to open a long. I’m not giving any long triggers before that because, as we said, the daily momentum has shifted to a downtrend, and we don’t want to trade against the higher timeframe flow.
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis helped you out, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll get to it. Thanks for hanging out, and I’ll see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
📅 Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
The upward channel on the daily chart has finally broken, and when we talk about a channel break, we don’t mean a weak one—this was confirmed by two strong bearish candles. We might see a pullback to the channel, but if not, a break below the 1.12006 support could send us into a deeper correction toward 1.08454. To confirm a full trend reversal, we’d need to see lower highs and lower lows on the daily.
So, with this in mind, it’s smarter to take positions in lower timeframes (like 4H or below) in the direction of the current bearish momentum to boost your win rate and R/R. Let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe for the actionable setups.
⏰ 4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
After a prolonged box range and a fake breakout above the box’s ceiling, the price has now broken lower and is pulling back. For our short setup, we already have a position open from above at 1.12676. But after a break of 1.12012 (which aligns with daily support), we can add to our position—with proper capital and risk management, of course.
Another confirmation for the short? The RSI entering oversold territory can be a solid signal. Why oversold? We need tools to gauge momentum, like SMA, RSI, or volume (though volume only works well in crypto since forex volume isn’t transparent due to bank transactions, etc. In crypto, every transaction is recorded, so volume is reliable). RSI is one of my go-to tools for spotting momentum shifts, and it’s been a profit machine for me. But remember: oscillators and indicators aren’t entry signals—they’re confirmations for the setups we’re trading. Want to learn more? I could drop a few YouTube videos on RSI alone—it’s worth the deep dive! 📚
For a long setup, we’d need a return to the box range and a break above resistance at 1.13740 to open a long. I’m not giving any long triggers before that because, as we said, the daily momentum has shifted to a downtrend, and we don’t want to trade against the higher timeframe flow.
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis helped you out, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll get to it. Thanks for hanging out, and I’ll see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.