EUR/USD CPI inflation reports day, what to expect ahead?
Updated
Wednesday's economic calendar data would show the direction of inflation in Germany and U.S. , I would mention below the updates, expectations and how price would move accordingly?
1- U.S. inflation updates >>
- According to calendar release the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) has dropped to 0.4% signaling a modest drop in the U.S. inflation -
- Also Wednesday's inflation reports forecasts all show optimism on further drop in U.S. inflation -
- PRETTY HIGH BUT DESCENDING INFLATION -
- IF U.S. CPI INFLATION INDICATOR REPORTS SHOW ANY DROP AS EXPECTED OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY = PRICE WOULD BREAK BELOW 1.1700 WITH A MAXIMUM TARGET 1.1650 -
2- EU inflation updates >>
- German inflation jumped to the highest level since 2008 as coronavirus restrictions were lifted and economy reopened -
- According to calendar release the CPI (YoY)(Jul) signaled a rise to 2.2% from 2% forecasted and 1.9% previous - ( INFLATION INDICATOR)
- RISING INFLATION -
- IF GERMAN CPI INFLATION INDICATOR REPORT SHOWS ANY RISE AS EXPECTED = PRICE WOULD BREAK BELOW 1.1700 BUT WOULD PROBABLY WAIT FOR U.S. CPI REPORT AS A CONFIRMATION TO REACH THE 1.1650 IF IT HAPPENS TO DROP -
3- If U.S. CPI reports mess expectations and signs for rising inflation + German CPI report confirm that inflation is rising in Germany = PRICE RANGE WOULD BE 1.1700-1.1800 AND THE 1.1680 WOULD BE THE MAXIMUM REACH FOR BEARISH INVESTORS
CONCLUSION
- CPI REPORTS TODAY TO CONFIRM THE DIRECTION OF INFLATION IN GERMANY AND U.S. -
- DROP IN U.S. CPI REPORTS (DESCENDING INFLATION + HAWKISH FED) = PRICE TO BREAK BELOW 1.1700 TO TARGET 1.1650 -
- RISE IN GERMAN CPI = PRICE TO BREAK BELOW 1.1700 TO TARGET 1.1680 MAXIMUM AHEAD OF U.S. CPI DATA -
- RISING GERMAN INFLATION + RISING U.S. INFLATION = PRICE RANGE OF 1.1700-1.1800 -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
1- U.S. inflation updates >>
- According to calendar release the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) has dropped to 0.4% signaling a modest drop in the U.S. inflation -
- Also Wednesday's inflation reports forecasts all show optimism on further drop in U.S. inflation -
- PRETTY HIGH BUT DESCENDING INFLATION -
- IF U.S. CPI INFLATION INDICATOR REPORTS SHOW ANY DROP AS EXPECTED OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY = PRICE WOULD BREAK BELOW 1.1700 WITH A MAXIMUM TARGET 1.1650 -
2- EU inflation updates >>
- German inflation jumped to the highest level since 2008 as coronavirus restrictions were lifted and economy reopened -
- According to calendar release the CPI (YoY)(Jul) signaled a rise to 2.2% from 2% forecasted and 1.9% previous - ( INFLATION INDICATOR)
- RISING INFLATION -
- IF GERMAN CPI INFLATION INDICATOR REPORT SHOWS ANY RISE AS EXPECTED = PRICE WOULD BREAK BELOW 1.1700 BUT WOULD PROBABLY WAIT FOR U.S. CPI REPORT AS A CONFIRMATION TO REACH THE 1.1650 IF IT HAPPENS TO DROP -
3- If U.S. CPI reports mess expectations and signs for rising inflation + German CPI report confirm that inflation is rising in Germany = PRICE RANGE WOULD BE 1.1700-1.1800 AND THE 1.1680 WOULD BE THE MAXIMUM REACH FOR BEARISH INVESTORS
CONCLUSION
- CPI REPORTS TODAY TO CONFIRM THE DIRECTION OF INFLATION IN GERMANY AND U.S. -
- DROP IN U.S. CPI REPORTS (DESCENDING INFLATION + HAWKISH FED) = PRICE TO BREAK BELOW 1.1700 TO TARGET 1.1650 -
- RISE IN GERMAN CPI = PRICE TO BREAK BELOW 1.1700 TO TARGET 1.1680 MAXIMUM AHEAD OF U.S. CPI DATA -
- RISING GERMAN INFLATION + RISING U.S. INFLATION = PRICE RANGE OF 1.1700-1.1800 -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
Note
German CPI report came as forecasted 0.9% which signs for rising inflation, the downtrend shall gain momentum probably will break below 1.1700 maximum to 1.1680 ahead of the U.S CPI data, up to now price range is 1.1750-1.1680Note
HIGH ANNUAL U.S. CPI DATA.INFLATION STAYED HIGH IN JULY, WITH U.S. CONSUMER PRICES RISING 5.4% FROM A YEAR EARLIER.
NEW PRICE RANGE 1.1700-1.1850
SHORT POSITIONS ARE FAVORED TO BE CLOSED
Note
I STILL DO NOT RECOMMEND TO BUY AS LONG AS INFLATION IS RISING IN GERMANY AND EU BETTER TO SELL AT HIGHER PRICES, ALSO BECAUSE THE FOMC BOSTIC SPEECH IS LIKELY TO APPROVE THE EARILER THAN ANTICIPATED HAWKISH AND ANNOUNCE TAPER, STILL FAST REJECTION DOWNWARD MAY TAKE PLACE.
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