Euro / U.S. Dollar
Long
Updated

DeGRAM | EURUSD rebound in the channel

529
📊 Technical Analysis
● Strong rebound from 1.1070/channel base produced a V‑shape and broke a minor falling wedge; price is now carving higher lows above 1.1200 support.
● Room remains to the upper wedge rail / supply 1.1380, which aligns with the channel’s mid‑line; invalidation if 1.1200 fails.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US April CPI printed 0.3 % m/m (vs 0.4 % cons) while retail‑sales missed, knocking 2‑yr yields beneath 4.70 % and weakening the USD.
● ECB hawks (Vujčić, Nagel) said cuts after June hinge on data, tempering dovish bets and underpinning euro rates. FXStreet flags fresh demand above 1.12.

Summary
Channel‑floor bounce + softer US data versus guarded ECB tone favour a grind to 1.1300 → 1.1380; long bias void under 1.1200.

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snapshot
📊 Technical Analysis
● V-reversal from the channel floor pierced the inner blue trend-line; price now presses the midpoint 1.1200, turning it into support.
● Break of the micro down-trend (black) opens a run to the supply cap at 1.1380 where the upper rail of the descending channel meets prior liquidity.

💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US NFIB sentiment fell to 89.7, its lowest since 2012, deepening Fed-cut wagers and pressuring the dollar, while Eurozone wage-growth data beat estimates, easing ECB dovishness.

Summary
Holding above 1.1200 keeps bulls in control; targets 1.1300 then 1.1380. Long bias invalidated on a close below 1.1080.

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