So today was a really good day and a really savage one at the same time. Lots of people need to be caught offside to move a market like EU with that much momentum so there will be lots of traders licking their wounds RN!
I have been anticipating that confirmation for buys for so long now that when it hit, I was fixed on one idea only. Trading what I thought and not what I saw. My psychology journal is a sorry entry tonight!
... I digress!
We're back to 'fairly simple market structure', those of you whom read my ramblings have heard me say that recently and can confirm that even the most basic looking structure can have surprises up its sleeve, particularly in the renowned month of August!
We are in a confirmed downtrend on the M15 so I'll map what I see but as we have seen, EU is more than happy to play the switcheroo twice in once day if it wishes.
Zones
Zone 3 is the extreme, if we pullback to this zone or zone 2 then I expect a push down to the level labelled 4.
If we pull back to the level labelled 1, it would need to be a sweep but that may push us down hard to the level labelled 5.
If price breaks the current local low without taking level 1 then the structure mapping will need an update and you will see a revised version of the mapping in the section below. You can click the little bookmark icon and get a notification when I update the idea. This is the case for every idea you want to be notified of updates on.
I am ultimately bearish but I think a lot of today's price action could be bullish in order to get the juice needed to break that big low
Caution
The H4 has swept some external sell side liquidity from the CHoCH level and if we close a H4 candle above the high of the IFC (sweeping candle) then I would consider that a HTF bullish signal. That would put us in a similar situation as today whereby we shifted bullish, so people were looking for buys but the bullish structure was only to sweep some H4 buy side liquidity to push down. So the caution I am giving is that us reaching up to the zones I have marked in this forecast could give me sell confluence but really that could also be price action closing above the H4 candle ready for a small pullback to the downside before a buying frenzy. That small pullback to the downside would move towards our target and then rapidly away! I have marked the top of the H4 IFC on the M15 for reference. Here is a peak at the H4 where a close below that red line at the bottom would mean EU is going down. It's the H4 reversal level.
These are tough times and the market is in full-on vampire mode. I have spoken to people today who's accounts have bled. Just follow your plan! Nothing matters if you are following your plan, your P&L will naturally fluctuate but your edge brings you out on top when it really matters which is the long run
See you tomorrow guys <3
I have been anticipating that confirmation for buys for so long now that when it hit, I was fixed on one idea only. Trading what I thought and not what I saw. My psychology journal is a sorry entry tonight!
... I digress!
We're back to 'fairly simple market structure', those of you whom read my ramblings have heard me say that recently and can confirm that even the most basic looking structure can have surprises up its sleeve, particularly in the renowned month of August!
We are in a confirmed downtrend on the M15 so I'll map what I see but as we have seen, EU is more than happy to play the switcheroo twice in once day if it wishes.
Zones
Zone 3 is the extreme, if we pullback to this zone or zone 2 then I expect a push down to the level labelled 4.
If we pull back to the level labelled 1, it would need to be a sweep but that may push us down hard to the level labelled 5.
If price breaks the current local low without taking level 1 then the structure mapping will need an update and you will see a revised version of the mapping in the section below. You can click the little bookmark icon and get a notification when I update the idea. This is the case for every idea you want to be notified of updates on.
I am ultimately bearish but I think a lot of today's price action could be bullish in order to get the juice needed to break that big low
Caution
The H4 has swept some external sell side liquidity from the CHoCH level and if we close a H4 candle above the high of the IFC (sweeping candle) then I would consider that a HTF bullish signal. That would put us in a similar situation as today whereby we shifted bullish, so people were looking for buys but the bullish structure was only to sweep some H4 buy side liquidity to push down. So the caution I am giving is that us reaching up to the zones I have marked in this forecast could give me sell confluence but really that could also be price action closing above the H4 candle ready for a small pullback to the downside before a buying frenzy. That small pullback to the downside would move towards our target and then rapidly away! I have marked the top of the H4 IFC on the M15 for reference. Here is a peak at the H4 where a close below that red line at the bottom would mean EU is going down. It's the H4 reversal level.
These are tough times and the market is in full-on vampire mode. I have spoken to people today who's accounts have bled. Just follow your plan! Nothing matters if you are following your plan, your P&L will naturally fluctuate but your edge brings you out on top when it really matters which is the long run
See you tomorrow guys <3
Note
The link to the peak of the H4 didn't work in the main section above - Note
We have some news today, early in the London session for the EU and a few hours into the NY sessionNote
We are pressing against the top of the IFC RN. 1:30 minutes for confirmation Note
Not any more. The data fell short of expectations Note
The internal low was taken so the structure map needed updating. Here is the update with changes to the targets, level 1 and zone 2 and the addition of the engineered liquidity 
Vagrant market bully.
No course and no challenge passing, please don't ask. Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
No course and no challenge passing, please don't ask. Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Vagrant market bully.
No course and no challenge passing, please don't ask. Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
No course and no challenge passing, please don't ask. Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.