Long EURUSD trade idea (Fib bounce) from 31st Mar to 1st April

Macro outlook for the week

News
PUTUS tweets throughout the week
Germany CPI at 4pm Monday
EURO CPI at 1pm Tuesday
US PMI at 6pm Tuesday
US ADP employment at 415pm Wed
CHF CPI at 1030am Thurs
US NFP at 430pm Fri

USD downside
Tariff risk - bad for USD
Bad NFP report
Bad PMI

USD upside
Good NFP report
Good PMI

Euro upside
Good CPI report (low cpi)

Euro downside
Bad CPI report (high cpi)

Technical Analysis
Daily Wedge Pattern

Currently trading at a premium level for a Short.
If we're taking a trade for more than a Day, TP/SL needs to be above 1.096 or 1.073. Those are the 2 high/lows of current trend
If I'm not trading any of the high impact news, then my TP needs to be within these 2 ranges
I'll trade daily levels if price reaches 1.093 or breakthrough 1.073

Lower TF
Breakout and prices maintain above

Can take a Fib level trade
SL below the previous trendline low
TP at 2R and below the daily high levels that should be impossible to reach without high impact news
Trade validity
From now 12pm Monday to 1230pm Tuesday
Trade setup
Limit BUY order at 1.0815. Valid till 12am Monday.
If entered, to close trade by 1230-1245pm Tuesday
Expectations
Price to continue in this uptrend momentum and not break the previous low as it's simply bouncing back from the Fib correction.

Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.

Trade active

Close Trade at 1224pm at 1.0895.

Result: -0.1R loss

Note: The price is still holding above the trendline and the trade should still be valid, but the upcoming EURO CPI is expected to change this. Thus, closing out the trade as planned.

Trade closed manually

Updating the trade status with the right option

Note

Review:

1. Prices dropped to hit the Trendline, it may be profitable to set entry along the trendline if the hypothesis is that it is going to hold in the trade
2. TP was way too optimistic. The price movement did not have a chance to get there, and I think that was a wrong TP assumption without a news impact. Prices should be expected to keep within a certain range especially with high impact news coming up.

yuhaocooper

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yuhaocooper