Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EURUSD H1 12/12/2024 - Bearish Momentum and key supports tested
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
D1 (Daily Chart)
Trend: Strong bearish trend with price below the 200 SMA and inside the Ichimoku cloud. The overall bias remains bearish.
Indicators:
RSI: At 40, close to oversold territory but still with room for downside continuation.
Stochastic: Near the mid-level (54), indicating a neutral stance with potential for further downside.
MACD: Below the signal line, signaling bearish momentum.
Key Levels:
Support: 1.0480, 1.0450.
Resistance: 1.0510, 1.0540.
H4 (4-Hour Chart)
Trend: Bearish consolidation, with price below the 200 SMA and hugging the lower Bollinger Band.
Indicators:
RSI: At 42, showing weak momentum but not yet oversold.
Stochastic: 28, nearing oversold levels.
MACD: Below the signal line with bearish momentum but showing a flattening histogram, suggesting potential consolidation.
Key Levels:
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460.
Resistance: 1.0515, 1.0540.
H1 (Hourly Chart)
Trend: Downtrend remains intact with price trading below all major moving averages and below the Ichimoku cloud.
Indicators:
RSI: At 45, confirming weak bearish momentum.
Stochastic: 23, indicating oversold conditions and possible pullback.
MACD: Slightly bearish, with price momentum losing steam.
ATR (14): At 10 pips, reflecting moderate volatility.
Key Levels:
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460.
Resistance: 1.0510, 1.0535.
M30 (30-Minute Chart)
Trend: Bearish but consolidating at key support levels near 1.0490.
Indicators:
RSI: At 43, close to oversold.
Stochastic: 20, signaling a possible short-term pullback.
MACD: Flat, reflecting indecision.
Correlated Financial Instruments
DXY (US Dollar Index):
Gold (XAU/USD):
Trade Plan for EUR/USD (H1)
Trade Setup 1: Bearish Continuation After Pullback
Rationale: EUR/USD remains in a downtrend, and any retracement to key resistance levels provides a selling opportunity.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0510–1.0515 (on a retracement).
Stop-Loss: 1.0535 (above recent resistance).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0485.
TP2: 1.0460.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 2: Aggressive Breakout Short
Rationale: A break below 1.0485 confirms bearish continuation toward lower support levels.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0480 (on breakout).
Stop-Loss: 1.0505 (above the breakout level).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0460.
TP2: 1.0435.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 3: Short-Term Scalping (Intraday Pullback to Resistance)
Rationale: A minor retracement to intraday resistance levels could offer a short-term short trade with reduced risk.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0505.
Stop-Loss: 1.0520.
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0490.
TP2: 1.0480.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.5.
D1 (Daily Chart)
Trend: Strong bearish trend with price below the 200 SMA and inside the Ichimoku cloud. The overall bias remains bearish.
Indicators:
RSI: At 40, close to oversold territory but still with room for downside continuation.
Stochastic: Near the mid-level (54), indicating a neutral stance with potential for further downside.
MACD: Below the signal line, signaling bearish momentum.
Key Levels:
Support: 1.0480, 1.0450.
Resistance: 1.0510, 1.0540.
H4 (4-Hour Chart)
Trend: Bearish consolidation, with price below the 200 SMA and hugging the lower Bollinger Band.
Indicators:
RSI: At 42, showing weak momentum but not yet oversold.
Stochastic: 28, nearing oversold levels.
MACD: Below the signal line with bearish momentum but showing a flattening histogram, suggesting potential consolidation.
Key Levels:
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460.
Resistance: 1.0515, 1.0540.
H1 (Hourly Chart)
Trend: Downtrend remains intact with price trading below all major moving averages and below the Ichimoku cloud.
Indicators:
RSI: At 45, confirming weak bearish momentum.
Stochastic: 23, indicating oversold conditions and possible pullback.
MACD: Slightly bearish, with price momentum losing steam.
ATR (14): At 10 pips, reflecting moderate volatility.
Key Levels:
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460.
Resistance: 1.0510, 1.0535.
M30 (30-Minute Chart)
Trend: Bearish but consolidating at key support levels near 1.0490.
Indicators:
RSI: At 43, close to oversold.
Stochastic: 20, signaling a possible short-term pullback.
MACD: Flat, reflecting indecision.
Correlated Financial Instruments
DXY (US Dollar Index):
- Continues to rise above 106.50, confirming USD strength and adding downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Gold (XAU/USD):
- Declining due to USD strength, supporting a bearish bias for EUR/USD.
Trade Plan for EUR/USD (H1)
Trade Setup 1: Bearish Continuation After Pullback
Rationale: EUR/USD remains in a downtrend, and any retracement to key resistance levels provides a selling opportunity.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0510–1.0515 (on a retracement).
Stop-Loss: 1.0535 (above recent resistance).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0485.
TP2: 1.0460.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 2: Aggressive Breakout Short
Rationale: A break below 1.0485 confirms bearish continuation toward lower support levels.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0480 (on breakout).
Stop-Loss: 1.0505 (above the breakout level).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0460.
TP2: 1.0435.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 3: Short-Term Scalping (Intraday Pullback to Resistance)
Rationale: A minor retracement to intraday resistance levels could offer a short-term short trade with reduced risk.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0505.
Stop-Loss: 1.0520.
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0490.
TP2: 1.0480.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.5.
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