$EURUSD - Massive Swing Sell Underway
Updated
As soon as price entered around the Bearish Order Block of 1.18400 I expected a rejection and on the 5 min you can see one.
(Order Block Formed)
(Rejection)
Tell-Tale sign we're in for a big drop that could take days/weeks.
If it start's to push in higher, I would honestly expect that too as I've been taught that the orderblock is most likely to get priced halfway through but can get to the other side with a little extra room. So it could still buy 20 pips before I really expect a selloff. Maybe 50 pips. But Less than 10 min into posting this and it's already been the best entry you could ask for on a sell if it sustains.
But the main thing was the rejection upon entering the block. And we saw that. Now it's just a waiting game.
Commitment of Traders still has the pair net short so I'm still expecting quite the sell off. Selling and preparing to hold for the long haul.
Long term I think it could get as low as 1.14000 due to CoT Expectations. But previous years, the CoT may suggest a shorter drop with the crossing of Net Longs to Net Shorts and Price Action.
I expect to ride this down to 1.16800-1.16500 and we'll see what happens from there.
(Order Block Formed)
(Rejection)
Tell-Tale sign we're in for a big drop that could take days/weeks.
If it start's to push in higher, I would honestly expect that too as I've been taught that the orderblock is most likely to get priced halfway through but can get to the other side with a little extra room. So it could still buy 20 pips before I really expect a selloff. Maybe 50 pips. But Less than 10 min into posting this and it's already been the best entry you could ask for on a sell if it sustains.
But the main thing was the rejection upon entering the block. And we saw that. Now it's just a waiting game.
Commitment of Traders still has the pair net short so I'm still expecting quite the sell off. Selling and preparing to hold for the long haul.
Long term I think it could get as low as 1.14000 due to CoT Expectations. But previous years, the CoT may suggest a shorter drop with the crossing of Net Longs to Net Shorts and Price Action.
I expect to ride this down to 1.16800-1.16500 and we'll see what happens from there.
Trade active
It made a trendline. How Cute. Just giving me another opportunity to sell. Could be around 1.134. Could be higher.Note
Two things to note about the current trade. First is "The wall" or also the run on liquidity in price action that sets up the trade to go lower. Second will be what it looks like when it trades through the southern moving liquidity run. Also known as Breakers or ICT Breakers. if they move rapidly through, they'll usually return to the same spot to trade lower. like this.
If they are oscillating through it. that's usually a sign it might return higher and to jump ship. Because each oscillation gives the chance to produce a new breaker and if trading through that can be a push to the upside. Seen here.
However If it looks like the first scenario for the breaker, more breakers form when turning north, they usually produce a new run on liquidity which will form another breaker. When you see these continue to form, look for a hard sell.
Price Action 101 brought to you by ICT, Because I sure wouldn't have seen these things before it it wasn't for him.
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Next point to consider, pair has made relatively equal lows compared to highs. Highs are 5 pips and 2 pips apart and the lows are only .5 a pip apart. This is not seen as support in the Smart Money world. This is a sign of liquidity that price action will seek out. So by creating equal lows, my bias stands that it will continue to go lower. It may get higher than then current highs to get lower, but creating equal lows is a good way to break into them.Note
So the narrative has changed just a little. First, some context as to why I believe this is a strong order block is the fact that there are multiple breakers within the block and the trade didn't oscillate on the way down. It fell at pretty much free-fall speed giving each small run on liquidity a "breaker" status. Here's a 5 min chart inside the 4 hr order block with the breakers marked with red dashed rays. That halfway point is the golden dashed ray. We have equal highs now so I believe it will trade above those highs and hit one of the red lined breakers and that's when we see the real fall.
And they breakers are all at or near the usual TP extensions 127%-164% and the 200%. Shown here
I can only wait and find out if I'm right or not.
Note
Looks like anywhere in between 1.18520-1.18560. And yes, I'm using a 1M chart to get a better look at the price action. I used the daily and 4 hour to lead me to believe a trade would happen here. Note
Two things that could make this trade go either way. 1. The run on liquidity created equal highs. This usually lends itself to the idea that this is a selling point if it's reached again and price has a habit of doing the opposite and going against retail thought. (Equal Highs here notated as red dotted lines at the top of the green box)2. The run on liquidity could act as another wall giving the trade the green light to trade lower. As it did already produce an optimal trade entry by returning to a smaller bearish order block just after the run.
Note
Last line of defense before my Stop Loss is hit and it's not looking good.More Equal highs created and Broken. We have one last natural support / resistance level at the 1.18800. And Then the Bearish Order Block at 1.18935. If it trades through that, it looks like I'll be taken out and have to rethink the strategy. Here's the left side of the chart
And current price Structure
Note
1.18800 did a good job, now lets hope it drops fast to create a bearish breaker. Trade active
Now that we're finally in profit we have to look at the Market Maker Sell Model for profit. We're technically at the first profit zone now, around 20 pips just under the first low. So If you want take some profits and wait for the drop to the next low which will be at at around 1.17600After that take profit level, we'll look for the next lows which will be around the 1.16900
Note
After about 30 pips I want to put the S/L to BE.Trade active
I am expecting another push up into 1.184-1.185 - ish before dropping down. That is where the bearish order blocks are that will keep it from trading up. It has been hitting them on the way down, so If it doesn't come back up... good.Trade active
If you want to add another position. Add a sell when it trades back up to the breaker at 1.18116 so 1.18103 to clear your spread. Note
Time ti start mitigating risk. You can probably be safe to move the SL to Break Even. But if you want to leave room, lower it to 1.18500. It shouldn't get higher than that now and if it does it will probably go higher. If your taking small profits all the way down, this is another good spot to take off 10% when it reaches the current low at 1.7900. Trade closed: stop reached
If you continued with this idea your stop would be reached by now with 20 pip stop loss. or at B/E. And I hope you took some profits at the points I said you should, even if it was just as low as 5-10% of your pips.If you've left the original S/L Then you're still in and I'll continue to update this until we're for sure out. I'm personally still in this trade because I added two more positions at 1.185 and 1.186 on the way up. I'm out of my 1.184 position and 1.185 position but I still have my 1.186 position as well as I've added a new position at 1.18550 today when I watched myself go out of the trade as well as saw price action enter that same order block that I expected it to two nights ago when I mentioned that I expected it to push back up. That swing was the one I thought would happen previously and it just took another day to develop. Live and learn.
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For those still in this, that held over the weekend, my bias remains that we should see a slightly lower open. What we may have not seen over the weekend (yes, the market continues through the weekend, we just can't trade it) was highs being broken (possibly) and it's on it's way down. Or it could remain barely unchanged since it did not make new highs. Here I have marked Take Profit Targets on the way down. Two ways you want to divvy up your TP's. I personally would take 30% at TP1,TP2, and TP3, and then 5 and 5 for TP4. Or you could do 10% at TP1. 25% at TP2, TP3, TP4-1, and the you have 15% to divvy at TP4-2 and leave a trailer on. I would do 10 for TP4-2 and 5% on the trailer. Note
There are somewhat equal highs on the 15Min chart at the 1.18800 which does leave me feeling uneasy that it may go after the highs considering the type of early week we had last week. But the drop down looks like a Market Maker Sell Model. With a disturbance and buys somewhere between 1.74 and 1.72 but other than that, it looks easy sailing down.Note
TP 1 hit, look for a retracement into this zone to sell if you want to add another position or for a quick 30 pip scalp. The path I have is what I expect it to take.Note
Bad chart, heres a better one.Note
Ooof, Things went a planned during the London Session but as soon as the New York Session was about to begin, things went stale. For me, I like to pay myself, so I took a look left and shaved off 50% of my lot sizes from both my 1.18400 position and my 1.18550 position at 1.184041 and 1.18042, roughly 36 and 51 pips respectively. (it was slowly retracing as I was closing the first position). What gives me a little more hope that this will continue to sell is seeing that the daily low is closer than the daily high(s). 26 pips vs 45 pips. The daily highs are stacked not too far from each other. I'll be watching this Asian session closely because if momentum shifts, the breaker will the point in which to trade and it will be to buy. It looks as if price could bounce off the order blocks to start trading down, but if the momentum is upward it could come right back and bounce off the breaker and continue trading up. Especially if price does not struggle at the breaker. If it does not struggle at the breaker but stays below, then it could shoot right through once momentum builds back up and then the trade goes north. (see chart here) tradingview.com/x/0jDbxfq7/But if it consolidates and above/around and just keeps making smaller breakers or smaller equal highs at the breaker on a shorter time frame, then we're more likely to see the trade bounce off the previously mentioned order blocks to continue trading down. (See chart here).
I'll closely be watching the Asian session to see what the market is trying to tell me what it wants to do.
Note
This is the middle chart above, not sure what happened when copy/pasting.Note
Another hopeful that this is still going south is the GBPUSD chart which created equal lows as well as a breaker. They may not always trade in the same direction at every minute of the day, but they both generally have the same directional bias. (GBPUSD Chart)Trade active
TP 2 REACHED. I also added other shorts that were scalps within that last trade if you follow the related ideas or myself.Next trade is setting up and it's going to be quite the retracement but don't fret, it's going to trade up to the breaker at 1.18198 before falling again. So trade against it to that point or add another position when it gets there. (Chart of TP2 hit and next trade setup)
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Woke up to a TP 3 Smash! Good thing I'm manually taking profits because that's more pips than I expected for my 30% of my lots. I'd put my S/L to break even. because it still has a lot of potential for a large retracement, I'm expecting it to do just that. Note
Pullback Commencing with three possible targets the third most likely due to what you see on the left side of the trade. The trade enters a buy breaker and typical trades with breakers aim for the high it made previously.Note
My apologies, most likely will be going to the second breaker at 1.17940Trade active
We're close enough you can close now if you want. I have closed 95% of my lots and I have 5% of my lots left as a trailer with a s/l at Break even.Trade closed: target reached
Original Idea 100% complete. TP 4 Reached, we are belowthe original 1.16800 that I originally shot for.
You're either trading with Smart Money Theory or your just burning your money money. Believe me, I've been there.
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