Ride the pullback

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1wEEaLce/

Following my previous idea posted this morning, and considering nothing is stopping the Eur in its track, it's more than likely that we'll be hitting the targets I had in a straight line without a pullback first.

In that scenario there is no long I'm willing to take considering the risk/reward needed for such a trade. Thus why I'm sharing this short idea I'll be looking to execute if we get there first.
That being said I'll need to see a confirmation of reversal before pressing the sell button.

After such a move up, one can expect a pullback but truth be told: sky is the limit
I'll be looking at RSI divergence on hourly and LTF to time the entry short if we get to those levels and enter on a pullback.

If we get none of those then let it rip.

Note that we are already at pivot R5 on the weekly, on day 3.. That's a very rare sight, and hell, most pivot indicator won't display R6/7 at all. In this case R6 would be in middle of the resistance:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Yy9iSLDm/

Patience is the name of the game here.

A single trade might be all you need for a month, but if you take a lot of garbage ones, you'll need a lot more than a win to get something out of the markets.

Trade active

So yesterday was mostly a boring session with a great opportunity to long before the lose as we swept all the day's liquidity to help push higher today.
I posted a great trade idea in the minds section as it was happening and sadly I went to bed and moved SL to BE a bit too early so I missed out.

That being said, the big money is probably gonna be made today as we reach the extreme levels.
Right now we're bound to take out yesterday's high and most likely fill up the daily FVG.
The R2 daily level at 1.089 looks like a perfect level for the short ride.
That being said, it's a clear uptrend and we need multiple signals to enter a short against the trend.

While R2 is a level on its own it's not nearly enough. We have a RSI bearish divergence still in play that might be hit around the R2 level, in which case it would be a sell trigger for me if those two coincide (wait for the alert to be triggered and on the hourly close see if the level is respected or not)

We also have the DXY for further confirmation with the same RSI trendline in play:

Yesterday the DXY gave the confirmation for a sell at the top but not the EUR,thus why I didn't sell yet.

And finally that level also correspond with the 4H FVG/OB (I don't use OB but many people do)
So while it's not the A+ setup I like to trade big, it's a good A setup worth trading with a very good risk/reward, targeting the 1.0534 for the low hanging fruit, and ideally 1.04712 for a deep retracement (and maybe close the 4H FVG if markets plan to go a lot higher afterwards and not revisit those levels anytime soon)
This would be a 1:4 to 1:5 R:R with a high probability.

In case I'm too busy to update the idea while trading, don't forget to set your SL, it's more important than your TP!
Even the best setups can fail miserably because "reasons", don't get caught with your pants down!

Trade safely, plan and execute according to plan, not emotions!

Note

So here we are.
As much as I hoped for a bit more upside to enter at R2 daily, the 1h and 4h bearish divergence trendline did hit at the same time (as well as DXY) and they all closed at the right level on the 4h close.
I still do expect a probably spike up during the next 4h (and the news release) to hit the R2 level, thus why I entered half the position and set another short entry at R2 with the same SL and TP for a slightly better entry and R:R

this is a potential 4 to 5 R:R ratio with a good probability, and that's all we're playing. Stacking odds in our favors with good risk management. All it takes is one of those trade to hit TP in order to make up for any losses incurred and make some profits along the way.

I plan to move my SL to breakeven once we close the 4h gap on the chart. At this point we might get a reversal and another push higher and I do not plan to take a loss anymore past that point.
But also always be reactive, things might change, news might rewrite the plot and depending on all those factors, closing the trade early or extending the TP are possibilities depending on what the price tells us.

Trade safely and do not risk more than you're comfortable losing, always place a SL and double check to make sure it's a proper level, once you do, do NOT move the SL. Your risk/reward is based on that SL.
Measure twice, cut once!

Best of luck to you all in those markets!

Note

Little update on the trade:

I didn't have time earlier to post here but I closed my position (half a full position like mentioned earlier) once we closed the 4H candle on R1 daily pivot.
We didn't manage to break R1 all noon basically and when the 4H candle closed, the 1H timeframe closed exactly on the bullish rsi divergence trendline. Which indicate a fail push down and a possible reversal to the upside again.

At this point my thought process wa

Note

misslicked*

At this point my thought process was simple:
Friday was coming to an end, the news from putin ready to accept a cease fire might break during the week end, making EUR gap higher on monday, and while swaps are positive in short, I didn't feel comfortable holding that trade over the week end.

I closed for a 20 pip profit, nothing groundbreaking but still a positive week.
Like I always say: do not regret closing a position in profit, even if the trade ends up going in your favor after the close, it can always be better, but it sure as hell could be a lot worse.
Spending the week end without having to worry about potential losses on open monday is not worth it and might hinder your ability to trade properly the whole week to come.

Also and more importantly, we still have the bearish RSI trendline in play (the price is getting extremely squeezed between both trendline, which will likely result in a massive move once it's released), which means with a bit of luck, monday we'll get an opportunity to short again when that bearish trendline is hit again, maybe even at a better price and better R:R

Right now price is slowly grinding up into the close so I have no regret and will update the idea on monday once we resume operation.
I'm not closing this idea because I still believe it's valid, it's just the market didn't show us its hand yet and the good trade will be next week hopefully.

Have a beautiful week end and I hope you all made good money this week despite the very unusual situation.
Next week will be great!

Nordic_Wings

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Nordic_Wings