Short

EURUSD Looking to Short

Updated

Taking a look at the overall momentum shift and the extreme extension of the up trend is giving indication price is wanting to retrace.

Expecting a head and shoulders to form based on the sub levels marked in grey, and resistance to fall below the trend line, but ultimately sellers could look to pile on to make the final push.

0.02 lot at 109412 sell is started, hedging above at 1.09712, giving 30 pips of room.

Using the red line as a key level for the entry, and looking at the overall choppiness in the weak push off the "W" pattern usually seen as a double bottom tells me the retest is likely to fail. This choppiness is also showing me buyers are losing drive, and not many have faith on the price going much higher for now

Trade active

Trade position taken at 1.09412 with 0.02 lot sell

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Not overly set with a target just yet but 1.076 looks to be a likely area. Grid trading is clearly happening, I'll ride their waves, as the *.**6 looks to be the most common levels they use

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Was in a bit of a rush to post this morning, but now I've got a little more time I'll expand it a little further.

This is by no means an individual position meant to do or don't. I'm hedge trading, and have about .06 more I'll put to either side. Only risk exposure is important right now with the goal to be a larger size. I know I'm counter trading, and the market won't go forever, I also know that if this goes it can turn back any time. I will be looking for more add ins short until the 1.07 areas, while also moving (not changing to a stop) and adding hedge size. If this goes against any short, the long hedge catches and forward gain gets locked on for later. For the main outcome I'm looking for the retrace, then when it gets down to turn, I'll target around the 1.10 for longs, and look to catch a retrace again from there. I'm looking to plan about 3-4 legs away.

Now, should the short not work at all, the buy hedge will hold.until we get to 1.104 or so, and look to cut the long and add a short, for retracement. Somewhere some way, I'm catching this retracement, and when it's done, I'll be in a loaded up position for the reversal to continue, but the shorts may have to look for different targets. I'm trading both sides, and managing the exposure and size for how much pip value I'd like, and adjusting to the outlook without trying to get too large too fast.

This is a 2-3 week trade, and the entry is just pawn to e4, the opening move

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Strong push down, observing price to come back to around 1.092 and give a strong tweezer or some other form of reject indication, or, looking for price to make a tight upwards channel to the same area to look for another add in. Leaving the original buy stop in place for now, and will change a little if a second sell gets activated, still just watching for now, and probably going to see the entry after market open

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A strong pin into 1.094-1.095 is most likely, judging the set up of the top, and drawing on how many times I've seen this in the euro, so 3 possible price actions that typically play out, deviation from this ill observe, but one of these three are the most typical next moves from here for price

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"Houston, we have the channel" now to see that pinbar sometime close to london open and it'll be a green light. I'll put the position in under the pinbar, just in case and when it hits, the hedge stop gets adjusted and secures some forward progress off the open move

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Buy stop moved down to 1.0928 @ 0.04, additional sell of 0.02 added at 108965 on the retest of the resistance level under the open consolidation.

First position will have locked in gain, using the same risk on the second position, only about $3 of risk total in position off the starting balance

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Second liquidity grab maybe, could be a nice down move coming. If that's the case I'll keeo dragging the buy stop down and look to add again on a retest of the 1.0868 level. I'll repeat this process down, and should the hedge get tagged, that's ok, it'll be dirt cheap and the market can just hold that for me while I switch to work the other side to make more gains while it builds. The hedge gets hit at any point forward, the max size will reset (0.08) and what's stuck is just stuck til I need it later

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Nudging the buy stop down to jut over the break down at 1.092, and look for an area of retest to throw another iron in the fire...

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Next drop is all stop losses from the buys out of the bottom, collapse on the way with plenty of selling pressure to get it there

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Mark 1.0886 adding again, 0.02, buy stop increased to 0.06 at 1.091.

Using the whipsaw bottom as a resistance level

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Still only looking at about $4 of risk exposed in the position at this point off the initial balance

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Resistance levels seem to not want to hold, but there is still the pattern trend line and the breakout point to first lower high as angles to watch. These fail, look for closing off the buy around the recent most peak, and turn again for the sell side, or this holds, we go clean and come strong off the bottom. Either way, clean is nice but the first part is done well if it goes up. Entire portion of risk allocated for this is still in tact, and $4 is nothing out of the risk balance allowed. Still two full sets of risk available to work this out, go where you wish, but it's starting to look up just a little to pull back off this strong down leg.

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I hear this action called a few things, but "megaphone" seems to fit best, not over for the clean trade yet though

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The work now begins, hedge order in and equal at 0.06 and $4.20 relative drawdown. Wait for the next reverse, and pick a side

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MT5 says -$2.76 , but depending on if either area of interest is hit before the weekend, swaps will run about .24¢ a day total, so 🤷🏻‍♂️

1/3 of the current holdings contain+$8 in equity, roughly 4%, but I don't want to clip them, because it will create a disadvantage later that could leverage into a bit more. I'll just leave this here for now and wait.

The market has no choice but to benefit me, it can't stay here forever and it's at the center of an "inside out" inside hedge, the strongest point of control for the trader. I'll use the $8 gain as an additional opportunity to solve out, and is a risk buffer to make the first try very cheap. This will be a minimum two leg trade looking at the consolidation and the multiple levels getting created.

Overall big picture, there are also further points of interest in both directions, a bit out of the range were in now. High 1.10 and low 1.07, also in the middle and a very strong point to make a good outcome from several different angles with many tries to do it still

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Current MT5 drawdown: -$3.22
Swaps -.46¢

Still thinking short, watch for the trend line breaks, but I would believe price is very likely to stall around the trend line and maybe slowly drop below, with the most of the action probably happening late Monday to Tues, and depending on how far that goes, there may be some way to start on one side. Just staying held at the moment though.

If the line does break down, I'll attempt to try and catch the bottom of the drop and then trade the othersode back into a retest, and then switch again from there, but again mostly dependent on how the week opens and moves

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Rounding out the week, this is a good spot to consider a close of the long, but the last few hours and not very much volume it's much safer to hold through the weekend. Price is stalling, and looks promising for a possibility Monday of making an adjustment. Expecting most of the downside actions to take place Wednesday, and things seem to be in line with the current idea still.

Thinking of a possible stop order on the buy to end the long side on a downward move, and then set the buy stop again above price to start squeezing down. Depending on how we open and interact near this top will give a little more insight into the best possible plan.

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Closing the buys at 1.09446, new buy stop placed for 1.0976 and look to trial. Price may head back to the range and we're near the top portion,

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15 minute chart showing a triple tap top pattern, and the volatility change and appearance of a lot of resistance off this level is good confirmation for the exit of the buy stop looking at the 1 hour

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Hedged, wait for another spot to turn

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Now that I'm awake....

Looks like we have 1.104 as the next potential level. Only off the starting balance $24, so nowhere close to uncomfortable yet. Definitely going up there though I'd say

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Watching, very nice position of price action to be set for a liquidity run on London open for the 1.104 and dip, likely to close buys there and place a stop hedge at 1.107. Nothing set yet, will watch over the hour

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Setting the orders....

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Setting sells for 1.086 as targets and placing a full 0.06 sell stop below at 1.083. One price or the other starts in the opposite side

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Thinking behind the idea is price will pull down around the area of the v pattern that started the last up run by the monthly traders finally closing out. New month and new week coming gives reason to believe some traders will close out.

This in turn will react from the area due to orders likely being left at the bottom of the last big push upward, and that should get the retracement started from this last down push yesterday

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15 minute chart has a double top pattern, large tick volume on the down makes the idea likely to reach target for the sells

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It went down ... Too far. Sells closed and the hedge reached again, so wait for another reversal next week

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Closing sell 4.7 pips ahead and setting a new sell stop at 1.0795. Try to squeeze up again for a retracement of coming down

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3rd time wrong, hedged again

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Looking at where the break will be but until it happens, expecting the channel down to keep going.

Looking at two possibilities, and have weighed several others. Using about 79% of the max I'm still with .02 more I can add, so if we have som motivation to go up from here, I'll take a buy in the lower portion of the range of position, hedge short side, but if we go down into the lower 1.07s, which is what I expect, I'll drop the .02 down around that area and look at a full send for the top side trading and squeezing from the outside.

Currently standing at 198.68, 262.11 start balance so only halfway through risk allocated, but this price action with news, I'm holding until I see something different happening.

1.09769 @ 0.06 long
1.07960 @ 0.06 short

Even a failure of either of these ideas with a new hedge, .02 more still can be placed in safely for more compounding but it won't take effect until the next leg, and until then more failure just means use the small lots to make small pieces back and then full send off the next leg. This could take a while so once I clean up my chart I'm making a new idea with updated lots and positions.

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Setting a target on sells for 1.0722, hedge stop at 1.06845, leave a little more room on this one and look to target the order block area off the lower portion before price went up last. Also placing a .02 to go full size off the 1.0722 level

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Closing the sell on 1.07636, try to squeeze now to the long side, adding a .02 @ 1.07652, hedge at .08 @1.0735 below the order block

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Adjusting the hedge to 1.07385, and I'll let this one go over the weekend. See where it opens on Monday, but thinking it will continue up a bit more still.

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Seeing a lot of small but strong buys in the candle ticks, though fomc is still around the corner, not expecting much until news time. Still holding open .08 long, hedge stop still at 1.07385.

Still a bit behind on my current projects, so apologies for the storybook style idea. Carrying on here until catch up soon enough I hope.

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Textbook wykoff long schematic, still holding long comfortably, see where this thing stops but expecting a long push

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Moving sell stop to 1.0772, just ahead of the trade sections breakeven point, account is now positive equity ahead of the start and continue to hold for 1.104 or so

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Still a lot of push, moving stop to 1.084, locking a small gain and trade is now risk free

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1.0885 has for some reason been consistently strong over the last year, but this is a familiar looking candle pattern. Pair this with the wykoff accumulation off the 1.07 range I think we could see the target by end of the week, and maybe a bit more next week, but will look to cut at the original planned target of around 1.104, and start the Gambit again. Knight to g5, check....

Trade closed: target reached

Taking everything off the table at 1.10.

391.87 ending balance.

Total account gain 49.5%

Total profit 129.76.

I'll list trades soon, this one wasn't too many

ForexStoryteller

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