AM Futures & FX Update: EUR/USD Has The Better Set-Up Today
Updated
GAME PLAN FOR NOVEMBER 8, 2022:
GENERAL NOTES:
No change from yesterday in terms of how to approach his market: In Sunday’s brief look ahead for the week, I noticed that the intra-day volatility in the S&P’s is making it challenging for swing trading. Unless of course, you have very wide stops. But that misses the point. In a rangebound market that began in early October, one must adopt a traders mentality even more so. It’s not about making the ‘big trade call/forecast’; it’s about listening to the market and taking what you can and then walking away. Let’s call it ‘sparrow trading’. Fly to the bird feeder, look around nervously, and fly away with a few seeds.
References to colors (GREEN, RED, ORANGE, PURPLE) in the text below refers to Aspen S/R Levels.
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S&P 500: Turning Bullish From yesterday, Part 1 complete: A hold above 3800 (ORANGE) points to 3872-3895. Part 2 will require prices to break above 3844 (Fib level)
10-Year Notes: Neutral Price action thus far has held the last line of defense at 109’20 (ORANGE) & 109’11 (GREEN). It’s tempting to look for long entries (bottom-picking appeals to our irrational impulses), but for now, it’s hard to see a reason to do that. Above 110’25 (GREEN) allows for long considerations.
VIX (futures): Neutral With prices sitting below support at ~25.55-25.27 we may be set up for a grind lower. Thus set your expectations accordingly for quick moves (or lack of) in the S&P’s. Remember, VIX and the S&P’s are inversely correlated.
EUR/USD: Bullish Prices were able to push decisively above .9949 (RED) yesterday, putting the bulls in control. We are now seeing a nice pull-back off those Monday highs, and they should be considered buying opportunities with stops back below .9949 (RED)-.9930 (ORANGE)
AUD/USD: Bullish From Friday, and still valid: Bullish above .6442. (GREEN)
USD/JPY: Turning Bearish The key levels at 145.60 (ORANGE) and 144.99 (RED) remain the big obstacle to lower levels.
Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Prices are back below some key resistance at 111 (ORANGE) & 110.93 (Fib level) & 110.71 (GREEN). Bears now have their eyes on 109.64 RED).
Bitcoin: Bearish No need to change my view on this one; it’s been the same for months: dead money, but still lacking the catalyst to drive prices lower. Those levels are 18,850 ORANGE) & 18,700 (RED)
Trade to thrive,
Dave
GENERAL NOTES:
No change from yesterday in terms of how to approach his market: In Sunday’s brief look ahead for the week, I noticed that the intra-day volatility in the S&P’s is making it challenging for swing trading. Unless of course, you have very wide stops. But that misses the point. In a rangebound market that began in early October, one must adopt a traders mentality even more so. It’s not about making the ‘big trade call/forecast’; it’s about listening to the market and taking what you can and then walking away. Let’s call it ‘sparrow trading’. Fly to the bird feeder, look around nervously, and fly away with a few seeds.
References to colors (GREEN, RED, ORANGE, PURPLE) in the text below refers to Aspen S/R Levels.
----------------------------------------------
S&P 500: Turning Bullish From yesterday, Part 1 complete: A hold above 3800 (ORANGE) points to 3872-3895. Part 2 will require prices to break above 3844 (Fib level)
10-Year Notes: Neutral Price action thus far has held the last line of defense at 109’20 (ORANGE) & 109’11 (GREEN). It’s tempting to look for long entries (bottom-picking appeals to our irrational impulses), but for now, it’s hard to see a reason to do that. Above 110’25 (GREEN) allows for long considerations.
VIX (futures): Neutral With prices sitting below support at ~25.55-25.27 we may be set up for a grind lower. Thus set your expectations accordingly for quick moves (or lack of) in the S&P’s. Remember, VIX and the S&P’s are inversely correlated.
EUR/USD: Bullish Prices were able to push decisively above .9949 (RED) yesterday, putting the bulls in control. We are now seeing a nice pull-back off those Monday highs, and they should be considered buying opportunities with stops back below .9949 (RED)-.9930 (ORANGE)
AUD/USD: Bullish From Friday, and still valid: Bullish above .6442. (GREEN)
USD/JPY: Turning Bearish The key levels at 145.60 (ORANGE) and 144.99 (RED) remain the big obstacle to lower levels.
Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Prices are back below some key resistance at 111 (ORANGE) & 110.93 (Fib level) & 110.71 (GREEN). Bears now have their eyes on 109.64 RED).
Bitcoin: Bearish No need to change my view on this one; it’s been the same for months: dead money, but still lacking the catalyst to drive prices lower. Those levels are 18,850 ORANGE) & 18,700 (RED)
Trade to thrive,
Dave
Note
No surprise here for those that track the Dollar Index (DXY).....low of the session? 109.64 (RED).....a KNOWN level for weeks now
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