EURUSD 22 Jan 2025 W4- Intraday Analysis - ECB Lagarde speech
This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 22 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings.
Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook.
US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹After the Bearish BOS, price pulled back to the Swing EQ (50%) tapping into a Daily and a 4H Supply that caused a Bearish CHoCH and forming a Supply that failed and created a bullish INT Structure.
3️⃣
🔹As price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme, if we are going to continue bearish, this is the area that I prefer to be short from. Also note that after the Bullish iBOS, price pulled back to the INT Structure EQ (50%) but didn't mitigate the 4H demand and just reacted from the previous INT structure range.
🔹With the current PA, there is a high probability that price will take out the Bearish Swing High to fulfil the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback. More LTFs development required for a clear direction.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹INT Structure turned bearish yesterday after failing to break the Bearish Swing Strong High.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bearish iBOS and swept the liquidity above the Strong INT High.
3️⃣
🔹As mentioned in the 4H analysis, with the current PA there is a high probability that the Swing High will be broken but still no confirmation and technical is all pointing for bearish moves.
🔹My technical expectations still bearish till we have a Bullish BOS.
- Market Sentiment
- 4H Chart Analysis
- 15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings.
Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook.
US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹After the Bearish BOS, price pulled back to the Swing EQ (50%) tapping into a Daily and a 4H Supply that caused a Bearish CHoCH and forming a Supply that failed and created a bullish INT Structure.
3️⃣
🔹As price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme, if we are going to continue bearish, this is the area that I prefer to be short from. Also note that after the Bullish iBOS, price pulled back to the INT Structure EQ (50%) but didn't mitigate the 4H demand and just reacted from the previous INT structure range.
🔹With the current PA, there is a high probability that price will take out the Bearish Swing High to fulfil the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback. More LTFs development required for a clear direction.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹INT Structure turned bearish yesterday after failing to break the Bearish Swing Strong High.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bearish iBOS and swept the liquidity above the Strong INT High.
3️⃣
🔹As mentioned in the 4H analysis, with the current PA there is a high probability that the Swing High will be broken but still no confirmation and technical is all pointing for bearish moves.
🔹My technical expectations still bearish till we have a Bullish BOS.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.