🧠 Fundamental Analysis – Eurozone vs United States
The euro has rallied sharply in recent days, driven by relative stability in the Eurozone compared to growing macroeconomic uncertainty in the U.S. While the U.S. GDP slowed to 2.4% and inflation eased to 2.4%, Eurozone inflation remained stable at 2.2%, with a balanced trade surplus of €1.03B versus the U.S.’s $123B deficit. The European Central Bank has maintained a moderate interest rate of 2.65%, signaling flexibility, while the Fed holds at 4.5% but faces growing pressure to cut amid weakening consumer confidence (50.8) and rising unemployment (4.2%). In contrast, Eurozone unemployment just hit a record low of 6.1%, and business conditions are improving with both PMIs above 50. Capital flow is shifting as investors perceive the Eurozone as more stable, especially amid U.S. trade policy unpredictability and de-dollarization sentiment.
📈 Projection: If macro stability holds and ECB policy remains steady, the euro could continue attracting capital inflows, pushing EUR/USD higher.
⚠️ Risk Level: A sharp slowdown in Eurozone growth or surprise tightening from the Fed could reverse momentum quickly.
📊 Technical Analysis – EUR/USD (1H Chart)
EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1346, just below the highlighted liquidity grab zone near 1.14500–1.15000, which aligns with a potential rejection area below the PWH (1.15200). A potential liquidity sweep above this resistance could trigger a reversal setup.
📈 Projection: If EUR/USD grabs liquidity above 1.14500 but fails to hold, price may drop toward TP1 (1.11300–1.11170) and even TP2 (1.09540 / PWL) if bearish momentum strengthens.
⚠️ Risk Level: A sustained breakout above 1.15200 (PWH) with volume would invalidate the reversal idea and signal continuation toward 1.1600+.
The euro has rallied sharply in recent days, driven by relative stability in the Eurozone compared to growing macroeconomic uncertainty in the U.S. While the U.S. GDP slowed to 2.4% and inflation eased to 2.4%, Eurozone inflation remained stable at 2.2%, with a balanced trade surplus of €1.03B versus the U.S.’s $123B deficit. The European Central Bank has maintained a moderate interest rate of 2.65%, signaling flexibility, while the Fed holds at 4.5% but faces growing pressure to cut amid weakening consumer confidence (50.8) and rising unemployment (4.2%). In contrast, Eurozone unemployment just hit a record low of 6.1%, and business conditions are improving with both PMIs above 50. Capital flow is shifting as investors perceive the Eurozone as more stable, especially amid U.S. trade policy unpredictability and de-dollarization sentiment.
📈 Projection: If macro stability holds and ECB policy remains steady, the euro could continue attracting capital inflows, pushing EUR/USD higher.
⚠️ Risk Level: A sharp slowdown in Eurozone growth or surprise tightening from the Fed could reverse momentum quickly.
📊 Technical Analysis – EUR/USD (1H Chart)
EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1346, just below the highlighted liquidity grab zone near 1.14500–1.15000, which aligns with a potential rejection area below the PWH (1.15200). A potential liquidity sweep above this resistance could trigger a reversal setup.
📈 Projection: If EUR/USD grabs liquidity above 1.14500 but fails to hold, price may drop toward TP1 (1.11300–1.11170) and even TP2 (1.09540 / PWL) if bearish momentum strengthens.
⚠️ Risk Level: A sustained breakout above 1.15200 (PWH) with volume would invalidate the reversal idea and signal continuation toward 1.1600+.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.