Why I'm optimistic about the Euro
Despite the uncertainty in the markets (Gold and VIX) and the fundamentals (productivity and consumption) indicate a faster recovery in the United States, which theoretically should appreciate the USD, in my opinion the market remains irrational.
But following Keynes' advice "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", I prefer not to take a stand against the market.
The Fear & Greed indicator created by MagicEins, based on CNN's F&G Index is very useful for analyzing market sentiment, we can see that there is still a lot of room to reach the Jan/2020 greed levels.
In the short term we follow the sentiment and the market flow, the CoT shows that the large speculators continue to bet in favor of EUR. The last time speculators were bought on more than 100k contracts was in mid-2018, when EURUSD quote was ~ 1.17.
Another important reason in the short term is the EU summit taking place this weekend, where the EU leaders are edging closer to a deal on a Europe Recovery Fund. This can generate great optimism against the EUR.
Technically we are at an important top and the tendency of the retail trader is selling tops, but as most of these traders are losers in the long run - I will bet against.
But following Keynes' advice "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", I prefer not to take a stand against the market.
The Fear & Greed indicator created by MagicEins, based on CNN's F&G Index is very useful for analyzing market sentiment, we can see that there is still a lot of room to reach the Jan/2020 greed levels.
In the short term we follow the sentiment and the market flow, the CoT shows that the large speculators continue to bet in favor of EUR. The last time speculators were bought on more than 100k contracts was in mid-2018, when EURUSD quote was ~ 1.17.
Another important reason in the short term is the EU summit taking place this weekend, where the EU leaders are edging closer to a deal on a Europe Recovery Fund. This can generate great optimism against the EUR.
Technically we are at an important top and the tendency of the retail trader is selling tops, but as most of these traders are losers in the long run - I will bet against.
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