EUR/USD long: Let them eat cake
Hello traders
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.Hello traders
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.
We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get wha
We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get what he wants. He has already backed down from threats against Colombia, Mexico and Canada. He effectively threatened to nullify the legally binding trade agreement that he had put into place with Mexico and Canada in the first place. Say what? Que? Quoi? Or in American English WTF???
In a way, it is almost a French farce play with doors opening and closing to further the storyline.
Japan very deftly dodged the tariff threat by having a face to face meeting with Trump before any threats could materialize.
The UK has a very well balanced two way with trade with the US mostly holding a trade surplus with the UK.
And then, the European Union.
The US has a trade deficit on goods: think luxury vehicles, great French wines, delicious cheese, other agricultural goods. During Trumps' last term, the EU retaliated against Trump's tariffs with tariffs on American Whisky, Harley Davison etc. The US has a services surplus with the EU.
The EU has already committed to buying more energy from the US since the Ukraine/Russia war has disrupted the flow of natural gas and oil from Russia.
But can the US deliver on providing more of the EU's energy needs. Well, Trump will have to, 'drill baby, drill" since the US is running at capacity since fracking collapsed during Covid-19. WTI hit a low of S11 and has since recovered to treading water under $80.
Therefore, it appears that Trump's tariff threats may not have all that much impact on the EU. And do not forget about the European wall of NATO guarding us against the Russian invasion threat.
And just for the hell of it, say, the European Union blocks the Netherlands from providing ASML lithographic machines to the USA, which is hell bent on winning the AI war. No ASML, no NVIDIA chips. Just saying...
The technical side also suggests that the Euro might have found a base above 1.0200 and is ticking higher again.
Do not forget, the Euro is also a member of the Elite Club of safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF, USD and EURO. While the USD has the advantage of higher interest rates and the promise of higher inflation caused by tariffs, the EURO has the second highest rates of the four safe haven currencies. The member countries of France and Germany are also going through some political upheaval but not to the extent that it will threaten the stability of the EURO.
On a balance, I believe the Euro may appreciate against most of the majors despite the tepid economy.
Which leaves China: Why is Trump so quiet about tariffs on Chinese goods and the country with the biggest trade deficit of all??? I am speculating but the surplus of Chinese goods sold in the USA find their way through our S&P 500 companies, like Walmart, HomeDepot etc... And be assured, those CEO's have access to the inner circle of Trump. So does Miriam Adelson , the megadonor casino heiress who happens to own casinos in Chinese controlled Macau. Our USA tech bros' have also cozied up to Trump but that is more about local regulations than anything else.
The ultimate threat for us as low/medium/high income Americans, will be to what extent Trump inflates our already insane national debt and NOT the aforementioned trade hiccups. The 1% will still be cruising around in luxury German cars on their way to swirling a 50 year old Bordeaux in their finest crystal glasses and nibbling on French cheese and foie gras.
But hey, tomorrow is another day, another new development, so keep the trading sizes realistic and the stop loss levels tight. Above all, do your own research. This is just my two cents on a very complicated global quagmire that I believe, as an American citizen, will affect me negatively for the next four years.
Best of luck.
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.Hello traders
In the words of Marie-Antoinette, "let them eat cake" is where I believe the Trump administration will take us. It will not take four years before his Nationalist, America first doctrine will leave us all much worse off than before. He won the election, as I have believed he would, on exaggerated immigration issues but above all, "the economy, stupid, the economy". Despite record employment and GDP growth, inflation has not cooled down to pre 2020 levels. Will Trump lower prices for consumers? Don't think so. He is lashing out at International trading partners instead of taking a good look at the US Corporations that are still benefitting from his last tax cuts and inflated prices. The major Indices reflect that windfall. Let us take a look at the low hanging fruit of international trade before the price and inflation issues that have affected the American consumer.
ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union
All statistics regarding global trade are provided by the United States government in the link above.
I guess we are all dodging the tariff bullets ricocheting around the globe.
We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get wha
We all know it is a page from the classic Trump playbook of making threats to get what he wants. He has already backed down from threats against Colombia, Mexico and Canada. He effectively threatened to nullify the legally binding trade agreement that he had put into place with Mexico and Canada in the first place. Say what? Que? Quoi? Or in American English WTF???
In a way, it is almost a French farce play with doors opening and closing to further the storyline.
Japan very deftly dodged the tariff threat by having a face to face meeting with Trump before any threats could materialize.
The UK has a very well balanced two way with trade with the US mostly holding a trade surplus with the UK.
And then, the European Union.
The US has a trade deficit on goods: think luxury vehicles, great French wines, delicious cheese, other agricultural goods. During Trumps' last term, the EU retaliated against Trump's tariffs with tariffs on American Whisky, Harley Davison etc. The US has a services surplus with the EU.
The EU has already committed to buying more energy from the US since the Ukraine/Russia war has disrupted the flow of natural gas and oil from Russia.
But can the US deliver on providing more of the EU's energy needs. Well, Trump will have to, 'drill baby, drill" since the US is running at capacity since fracking collapsed during Covid-19. WTI hit a low of S11 and has since recovered to treading water under $80.
Therefore, it appears that Trump's tariff threats may not have all that much impact on the EU. And do not forget about the European wall of NATO guarding us against the Russian invasion threat.
And just for the hell of it, say, the European Union blocks the Netherlands from providing ASML lithographic machines to the USA, which is hell bent on winning the AI war. No ASML, no NVIDIA chips. Just saying...
The technical side also suggests that the Euro might have found a base above 1.0200 and is ticking higher again.
Do not forget, the Euro is also a member of the Elite Club of safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF, USD and EURO. While the USD has the advantage of higher interest rates and the promise of higher inflation caused by tariffs, the EURO has the second highest rates of the four safe haven currencies. The member countries of France and Germany are also going through some political upheaval but not to the extent that it will threaten the stability of the EURO.
On a balance, I believe the Euro may appreciate against most of the majors despite the tepid economy.
Which leaves China: Why is Trump so quiet about tariffs on Chinese goods and the country with the biggest trade deficit of all??? I am speculating but the surplus of Chinese goods sold in the USA find their way through our S&P 500 companies, like Walmart, HomeDepot etc... And be assured, those CEO's have access to the inner circle of Trump. So does Miriam Adelson , the megadonor casino heiress who happens to own casinos in Chinese controlled Macau. Our USA tech bros' have also cozied up to Trump but that is more about local regulations than anything else.
The ultimate threat for us as low/medium/high income Americans, will be to what extent Trump inflates our already insane national debt and NOT the aforementioned trade hiccups. The 1% will still be cruising around in luxury German cars on their way to swirling a 50 year old Bordeaux in their finest crystal glasses and nibbling on French cheese and foie gras.
But hey, tomorrow is another day, another new development, so keep the trading sizes realistic and the stop loss levels tight. Above all, do your own research. This is just my two cents on a very complicated global quagmire that I believe, as an American citizen, will affect me negatively for the next four years.
Best of luck.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.