EURUSD: Big trade I've been awaiting
Updated
EURUSD is breaking up from its 20 week accumulation period.
All this time, commercials have been long Euro futures, and we have seen fundamentals take a turn south for the dollar, and risk in US and global equities. Except for the recent relief rally, action has been predominantly bearish, which paired with the very dramatic rallies in the Euro and Yen, make me think that the big fish have been closing carry trades left and right.
As for the technicals, we have a potential time at mode weekly uptrend and an interesting weekly neowave chart at play. Many analysts are seeing this as a bearish wxy combo of some kind (mostly derived from traditional Elliott Wave analysis) whereas I see these intraday 'waves' mostly as noise, since the bigger picture tells me a different story.
I'll attempt to capture range expansion up, triggering a rally out of this 20 week mode, or catching a gap down in case we do have one more selloff after the IMF meetings this weekend. We already have a new weekly high, so I'll try a smaller entry here first if we don't get weekly range expansion before the close.
Either way, I'll try the long side. Target is on chart, I like how rgmov is posting new 2 month highs, and how most analysts are bearish and thinking the Euro goes down to parity from here, which I see as unlikely at this point, since rates are delayed until 2016.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
All this time, commercials have been long Euro futures, and we have seen fundamentals take a turn south for the dollar, and risk in US and global equities. Except for the recent relief rally, action has been predominantly bearish, which paired with the very dramatic rallies in the Euro and Yen, make me think that the big fish have been closing carry trades left and right.
As for the technicals, we have a potential time at mode weekly uptrend and an interesting weekly neowave chart at play. Many analysts are seeing this as a bearish wxy combo of some kind (mostly derived from traditional Elliott Wave analysis) whereas I see these intraday 'waves' mostly as noise, since the bigger picture tells me a different story.
I'll attempt to capture range expansion up, triggering a rally out of this 20 week mode, or catching a gap down in case we do have one more selloff after the IMF meetings this weekend. We already have a new weekly high, so I'll try a smaller entry here first if we don't get weekly range expansion before the close.
Either way, I'll try the long side. Target is on chart, I like how rgmov is posting new 2 month highs, and how most analysts are bearish and thinking the Euro goes down to parity from here, which I see as unlikely at this point, since rates are delayed until 2016.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Trade active
I didn't update but I'm in since 1.1354.Note
Weekly has confirmed an uptrend by closing above the mode, 20 week uptrend in place.Note
Bearish failure...this is very bullish for the Euro.
Trade closed: stop reached
Weekly time at mode trend signal failure. Seems like the scenario changed, I'm still positive on dollar weakness overall, otherwise we would see rallies in usdcad, and vs other dollar instruments, when we're not.
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