Dollar looks like it may be ready to bounce after a significant bearish trend.
And so I have been looking for a suitable currency pair.
Euro is printing a long wick; it looks good on the 2D chart that I will post below ⤵️.
But up on high time frame, I thought it was interesting to notice that the impulsive uptrend since January appears to be topping slightly higher than the previous trading range spanning back to 2023.
Whenever I see whipsaw at a slightly higher high, I am always thinking it may be a liquidity sweep as part of a Wyckoff Distribution.
Here it gets interesting 😅...
Because the move up was impulsive, but yet it has is printing potential topping candles at a slightly high high.
This suggests that this impulse wave may actually be a blow of 3rd wave as part of a 3 wave correction.
This blow off 3rd wave does not appear in any textbooks that I am aware of but I have seen this pattern in various contexts.
And it can be quite a useful one to be aware of because if it is a 3 wave completion, then potentially the dominant trend may re-assert to the downside.
If correct then this could be a great long term hold; down and down below the current ATL.
With this in mind, I have taken a fib extension from the lows...
And surprise surprise; the current wicked candles are printing tidily within the 1:0.618 Golden Window; captured nicely just shy of the 0.786 overshoot ratio.
If you've done the Fibonacci homework, then you'll know that this is a weak ratio band and exactly the ratio area we would want to see topping action print within for the purpose of looking for a bearish trade setup.
So okay, we have
- Whipsawing candles, often seen at high time frame pivots.
- Slightly higher high as part of a 3 wave 1:0.618 GW correction.
- Impulsive 3rd wave suggesting it is a blow off wave which could lead to significant downside.
With all this in mind, I have then looked back in the chart to take a high time frame Fib Retracement from the last major high - which was back in 2018 down to ATL which is the foot of the 3 wave correction.
Again, surprise surprise; the whipsawing action appears to be printing a high time frame retracement Golden Window failure.
This is a likely ratio area for rejection and further adds confluence to this bearish idea.
Then in low time frame, the impulse wave completes a 1:1 upside correction; a tidy ratio for wave completion.
...
In lower time frame there are 2 upper wicked candles printing a slightly higher high.
So again we have Wyckoff distributive structure signalling that this is a top 🧐.
So we'll see how it develops.
I entered a short position here.
Not advice
And so I have been looking for a suitable currency pair.
Euro is printing a long wick; it looks good on the 2D chart that I will post below ⤵️.
But up on high time frame, I thought it was interesting to notice that the impulsive uptrend since January appears to be topping slightly higher than the previous trading range spanning back to 2023.
Whenever I see whipsaw at a slightly higher high, I am always thinking it may be a liquidity sweep as part of a Wyckoff Distribution.
Here it gets interesting 😅...
Because the move up was impulsive, but yet it has is printing potential topping candles at a slightly high high.
This suggests that this impulse wave may actually be a blow of 3rd wave as part of a 3 wave correction.
This blow off 3rd wave does not appear in any textbooks that I am aware of but I have seen this pattern in various contexts.
And it can be quite a useful one to be aware of because if it is a 3 wave completion, then potentially the dominant trend may re-assert to the downside.
If correct then this could be a great long term hold; down and down below the current ATL.
With this in mind, I have taken a fib extension from the lows...
And surprise surprise; the current wicked candles are printing tidily within the 1:0.618 Golden Window; captured nicely just shy of the 0.786 overshoot ratio.
If you've done the Fibonacci homework, then you'll know that this is a weak ratio band and exactly the ratio area we would want to see topping action print within for the purpose of looking for a bearish trade setup.
So okay, we have
- Whipsawing candles, often seen at high time frame pivots.
- Slightly higher high as part of a 3 wave 1:0.618 GW correction.
- Impulsive 3rd wave suggesting it is a blow off wave which could lead to significant downside.
With all this in mind, I have then looked back in the chart to take a high time frame Fib Retracement from the last major high - which was back in 2018 down to ATL which is the foot of the 3 wave correction.
Again, surprise surprise; the whipsawing action appears to be printing a high time frame retracement Golden Window failure.
This is a likely ratio area for rejection and further adds confluence to this bearish idea.
Then in low time frame, the impulse wave completes a 1:1 upside correction; a tidy ratio for wave completion.
...
In lower time frame there are 2 upper wicked candles printing a slightly higher high.
So again we have Wyckoff distributive structure signalling that this is a top 🧐.
So we'll see how it develops.
I entered a short position here.
Not advice
Trade active
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Finally breaking down with impulse.This is starting to look good for the long term hold as described 👍.
Your FA guru can't read a chart💭
I run a technical group with lots of content every day + regular videos, 1:1, chatroom 🚀.
Better than all the rest? My record speaks for itself 💡.
Telegram Group: $50 per month✨.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
I run a technical group with lots of content every day + regular videos, 1:1, chatroom 🚀.
Better than all the rest? My record speaks for itself 💡.
Telegram Group: $50 per month✨.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Your FA guru can't read a chart💭
I run a technical group with lots of content every day + regular videos, 1:1, chatroom 🚀.
Better than all the rest? My record speaks for itself 💡.
Telegram Group: $50 per month✨.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
I run a technical group with lots of content every day + regular videos, 1:1, chatroom 🚀.
Better than all the rest? My record speaks for itself 💡.
Telegram Group: $50 per month✨.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.