Long

Bullish retracement on EUR/USD

Updated

Since we are so close to my last selling point mentioned on another idea - I have engaged in my first buy position at 1.08556. Although there is a drop potential to 1.0815 - my remaining selling position will close at 1.0844 or SL 1.0873 either way staying in profit. We have gone down on Eur/USD a lot and there is RSI divergence on H4 and H1 charts. It has not been confirmed by D1 (as W1 is suggesting a bullish pattern 1.075-1.0815) but I will be happy with my first buy entry I have already to see a 50% Fibonacci retracement.

Note

My second buy at 1.08381 has been executed and now waiting to see the price retracing up.

Note

Just an update on price levels we have :

In order to keep this idea valid price has to have daily close above 1.08340 otherwise a high risk of a fall tomorrow morning will arise.

There is no chance of closing the price above 1.089 today and this suggests that to remove bearish bias - tomorrows' task is to close the price above 1.0872.

If it does not climb above and is rejected there we will either go into 2-3 session consolidation or risk falling towards 1.0815

Note

Today we are having the first sign of recovery and recovery may be halted at around 1.087 today but as long as we stay above 1.086 at the end of the day - bullish recovery is intact and target of 1.097 is still valid.

Note

And just to keep everyone informed - there is a bearish SWAN pattern just formed on H1 chart which start from current point and is valid to 1.088 which may drag the price back to 1.083-1.084 levels before a further rise towards 1.097. So plan your trades accordingly keeping in mind this potential drop

Note

Price movements were pretty well behaved today - it gave bullish movement that was good for scalping and pretty predictable top for the day 1.08612, just a little lower 1.087 I mentioned at the start of the day.

Bearish SWAN pattern kicked in the moment I mentioned it and dragging the price back towards 1.08329 executed my preset buy order at 1.08333

It is very important to see price closing above 1.0845 (intraday resistance) which will provide more confidence for a bullish move. If price manages to close above 1.086 today (which is very unlikely) there will be a strong bullish move next session.

Have a nice weekend and trade safely.

Note

Price has gone into consolidation and buying pressure will start building once we get above 1.085 and stay there. Breaking 1.083 will risk dragging price to 1.0815 and possibly 1.08 but a rise back to 1.097 should still occur soon afterwards.

Note

Selling pressure is building around Euro and it may be dragged down to 1.076. Based on risk tolerance - a SL should be put below 1.0815 and buying idea becomes invalid.

Trade closed: stop reached

I have closed this with some small loss which was mainly covered by a quick buy from 1.079 to 1.082. This idea did not work as planned and we could be going for a visit to 1.076. I will be watching this pair for a new entry.

Erland

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