This chart of EUR/USD (1H timeframe) shows a bearish setup anticipating a downside move. Let’s break it down with technical and fundamental context:
🔍 Technical Analysis
Chart Breakdown:
Current Price: ~1.1394
Bearish Structure: Price broke a rising trendline from recent lows, indicating loss of bullish momentum.
Resistance Zone: Between 1.1429–1.1439 — price was rejected here.
Fibonacci Levels: Price respected the 38.2% retracement near 1.1386, suggesting the next fib levels (61.8%, 70.7%, 100%) are viable targets.
Volume Profile: Highest volume occurred during the last impulse down (-124.7 pips), indicating strong selling interest.
Sell Entry:
Entry Point: Around 1.1394–1.1400 after trendline break and resistance rejection.
Stop Loss (SL): Above resistance at 1.1440
Take Profit (TP) Options:
TP1: 1.1316 (61.8% fib level)
TP2: 1.1222 (major support and 2.01% measured move)
TP3 (Final): 1.1210–1.1211 (100% fib extension and psychological support)
Risk-Reward Ratio:
SL: ~50 pips
TP1: ~80 pips → RR ≈ 1.6:1
TP2: ~170 pips → RR ≈ 3.4:1
TP3: ~230 pips → RR ≈ 4.6:1
🌐 Fundamental Reasoning:
"Breaking watch for downside" aligns with global fundamental developments. A potential bearish EUR/USD setup could be justified by:
🔔 US-China Trade Talks – Positive Outcome:
USD Bullish Implications:
If recent US-China trade talks showed constructive outcomes, this boosts investor confidence in the USD.
Improved global trade sentiment often leads to safe-haven flows into USD.
🇪🇺 EU Economic Weakness:
Europe has been experiencing sluggish economic performance and slower inflation recovery.
The ECB remains more dovish than the Fed, limiting the euro’s upside.
✅ Trade Setup Summary
Component Details
Type Short (Sell)
Entry 1.1394 – 1.1400
Stop Loss 1.1440 (above rejection zone)
Take Profit 1 1.1316 (61.8% Fib)
Take Profit 2 1.1222 (strong support zone)
Take Profit 3 1.1210 (100% extension target)
RR Ratio From 1.6:1 to 4.6:1
Confirmation Trendline break + resistance hold
Fundamentals Strong USD from US-China progress
🔍 Technical Analysis
Chart Breakdown:
Current Price: ~1.1394
Bearish Structure: Price broke a rising trendline from recent lows, indicating loss of bullish momentum.
Resistance Zone: Between 1.1429–1.1439 — price was rejected here.
Fibonacci Levels: Price respected the 38.2% retracement near 1.1386, suggesting the next fib levels (61.8%, 70.7%, 100%) are viable targets.
Volume Profile: Highest volume occurred during the last impulse down (-124.7 pips), indicating strong selling interest.
Sell Entry:
Entry Point: Around 1.1394–1.1400 after trendline break and resistance rejection.
Stop Loss (SL): Above resistance at 1.1440
Take Profit (TP) Options:
TP1: 1.1316 (61.8% fib level)
TP2: 1.1222 (major support and 2.01% measured move)
TP3 (Final): 1.1210–1.1211 (100% fib extension and psychological support)
Risk-Reward Ratio:
SL: ~50 pips
TP1: ~80 pips → RR ≈ 1.6:1
TP2: ~170 pips → RR ≈ 3.4:1
TP3: ~230 pips → RR ≈ 4.6:1
🌐 Fundamental Reasoning:
"Breaking watch for downside" aligns with global fundamental developments. A potential bearish EUR/USD setup could be justified by:
🔔 US-China Trade Talks – Positive Outcome:
USD Bullish Implications:
If recent US-China trade talks showed constructive outcomes, this boosts investor confidence in the USD.
Improved global trade sentiment often leads to safe-haven flows into USD.
🇪🇺 EU Economic Weakness:
Europe has been experiencing sluggish economic performance and slower inflation recovery.
The ECB remains more dovish than the Fed, limiting the euro’s upside.
✅ Trade Setup Summary
Component Details
Type Short (Sell)
Entry 1.1394 – 1.1400
Stop Loss 1.1440 (above rejection zone)
Take Profit 1 1.1316 (61.8% Fib)
Take Profit 2 1.1222 (strong support zone)
Take Profit 3 1.1210 (100% extension target)
RR Ratio From 1.6:1 to 4.6:1
Confirmation Trendline break + resistance hold
Fundamentals Strong USD from US-China progress
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For Training visit.
Website wave-trader.com
Website techtradingacademy.com
Slack: wavetraders.slack.com
Telegram: t.me/Wavetraders
X: twitter.com/Wave__Trader
FB: facebook.com/WTimran
Website wave-trader.com
Website techtradingacademy.com
Slack: wavetraders.slack.com
Telegram: t.me/Wavetraders
X: twitter.com/Wave__Trader
FB: facebook.com/WTimran
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.