It's been a strong first-half of the year for EUR/USD.
As we came into 2025 it seemed a story of doom and gloom for the Euro, and calls for parity were practically everywhere. But the pair found support in January, held that support in February - and then broke out in a big way in March.
As we wind down Q2 that breakout remains in-play and EUR/USD is pushing fresh three-year highs as the USD sets its own fresh three-year lows.
Of interest is a simple Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 2021-2022 major move in the pair.
The 61.8% retracement is what caught the highs in 2023, and the 38.2% marker is what caught the low in April of last year, which held until that late-year breakdown. Along the way, the 50% mark at 1.0943 came into play as support and resistance multiple times.
And as the breakdown took hold through the 2025 open, it was the 23.6% retracement that showed up to catch the lows, right around the 1.0200 handle. As prices has posed a strong recovery over the past four months and change, the levels as taken from that Fibonacci retracement have exhibited a number of inflection points.
And now we have the 78.6% retracement coming into play to mark this week's highs. Notably - the pair is currently overbought on both the daily and weekly charts. And while it's difficult to justify strength in a USD that's been beaten down over the past four months, if looking for a turn - whether it's a simple pullback or perhaps the start of something larger, this resistance in EUR/USD remains a big spot to follow on the chart.
Quarterly cuts can be interesting junctures to investigate for turn potential, especially considering the bearish reversal in EUR/USD around the Q4 open last year. - js
As we came into 2025 it seemed a story of doom and gloom for the Euro, and calls for parity were practically everywhere. But the pair found support in January, held that support in February - and then broke out in a big way in March.
As we wind down Q2 that breakout remains in-play and EUR/USD is pushing fresh three-year highs as the USD sets its own fresh three-year lows.
Of interest is a simple Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 2021-2022 major move in the pair.
The 61.8% retracement is what caught the highs in 2023, and the 38.2% marker is what caught the low in April of last year, which held until that late-year breakdown. Along the way, the 50% mark at 1.0943 came into play as support and resistance multiple times.
And as the breakdown took hold through the 2025 open, it was the 23.6% retracement that showed up to catch the lows, right around the 1.0200 handle. As prices has posed a strong recovery over the past four months and change, the levels as taken from that Fibonacci retracement have exhibited a number of inflection points.
And now we have the 78.6% retracement coming into play to mark this week's highs. Notably - the pair is currently overbought on both the daily and weekly charts. And while it's difficult to justify strength in a USD that's been beaten down over the past four months, if looking for a turn - whether it's a simple pullback or perhaps the start of something larger, this resistance in EUR/USD remains a big spot to follow on the chart.
Quarterly cuts can be interesting junctures to investigate for turn potential, especially considering the bearish reversal in EUR/USD around the Q4 open last year. - js
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.