EUR/USD LT Range Continues After a False Breakout at 1.1200
It was the long-term fibo level at 1.1212 that has so far marked the 2024 high.
EUR/USD had a full head of steam in the first two months of Q3, eventually testing the 1.1200 level. And this was happening even as USD was setting fresh yearly lows, but even the 'super sized' rate cut from the Fed couldn't compel DXY bears to run with a trend and, in-turn, EUR/USD continued to stall around that 1.1200 handle.
Now the pair is turning lower as DXY is showing its strongest weekly outing since September of 2022. That was just before DXY had topped and that reversal was very much helped along by the largest component of DXY pushing-higher on rate hike expectations. At the time, the ECB was ramping up to 75 bp hikes to try to temper inflation and that helped both EUR/USD and DXY to retrace 50% of the move that had built in 2021-2022 in about three months.
Since then - EUR/USD has been range-bound. And that's continued through early Q4 24 trade as bears have started to make a push.
The 1.1000 level is still big - if prices do pullback, that's an area to track for resistance, along with 1.1055. Below current price, it's the 1.0943 level that seems important as this is the 50% mark of that 2021-2022 major move. - js
EUR/USD had a full head of steam in the first two months of Q3, eventually testing the 1.1200 level. And this was happening even as USD was setting fresh yearly lows, but even the 'super sized' rate cut from the Fed couldn't compel DXY bears to run with a trend and, in-turn, EUR/USD continued to stall around that 1.1200 handle.
Now the pair is turning lower as DXY is showing its strongest weekly outing since September of 2022. That was just before DXY had topped and that reversal was very much helped along by the largest component of DXY pushing-higher on rate hike expectations. At the time, the ECB was ramping up to 75 bp hikes to try to temper inflation and that helped both EUR/USD and DXY to retrace 50% of the move that had built in 2021-2022 in about three months.
Since then - EUR/USD has been range-bound. And that's continued through early Q4 24 trade as bears have started to make a push.
The 1.1000 level is still big - if prices do pullback, that's an area to track for resistance, along with 1.1055. Below current price, it's the 1.0943 level that seems important as this is the 50% mark of that 2021-2022 major move. - js
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