1. Smart-Money Structure & Displacement
Prior Leg: Clean 300-pip drop from 1.1262 → 1.1083 established a clear bearish displacement and lower-high/ lower-low structure on 1H & 4H.
CHoCH Confirmation: The bounce off 1.1083 and return up into 1.1200+ shows a Change-of-Character: the initial bearish leg is now being mitigated. A valid “return” leg is in play.
2. Confluence at 1.12250
Confluence Type Level(s) Comment
NWOG Mid-Zone ~1.1203 New-Week Open Gap (week of May 11) midpoint is ~1.1203
4H Fair Value Gap 1.1210–1.1230 Unfilled imbalance from the swift drop on May 9
1H Order-Block 1.1220–1.1240 Remnant liquidity block from the retracement high
Everything clusters tightly around 1.1220–1.1230, making 1.12250 an excellent tactical entry.
Tactical Plan
1. Set Sell Limit at 1.12250.
2. Stop at 1.12450.
3. Partial Target at 1.10830 (prior low) → +1.2 R.
4. Full Target at 1.09596 → +13 R.
5. Monitor for a clean bearish 1H wick off 1.1225 during NY open—enter only on clear rejection.
6. Hold through Powell; let price guide you—moves in your favor are likely sharp and directional.
Prior Leg: Clean 300-pip drop from 1.1262 → 1.1083 established a clear bearish displacement and lower-high/ lower-low structure on 1H & 4H.
CHoCH Confirmation: The bounce off 1.1083 and return up into 1.1200+ shows a Change-of-Character: the initial bearish leg is now being mitigated. A valid “return” leg is in play.
2. Confluence at 1.12250
Confluence Type Level(s) Comment
NWOG Mid-Zone ~1.1203 New-Week Open Gap (week of May 11) midpoint is ~1.1203
4H Fair Value Gap 1.1210–1.1230 Unfilled imbalance from the swift drop on May 9
1H Order-Block 1.1220–1.1240 Remnant liquidity block from the retracement high
Everything clusters tightly around 1.1220–1.1230, making 1.12250 an excellent tactical entry.
Tactical Plan
1. Set Sell Limit at 1.12250.
2. Stop at 1.12450.
3. Partial Target at 1.10830 (prior low) → +1.2 R.
4. Full Target at 1.09596 → +13 R.
5. Monitor for a clean bearish 1H wick off 1.1225 during NY open—enter only on clear rejection.
6. Hold through Powell; let price guide you—moves in your favor are likely sharp and directional.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.