Market update - FX, INDICES, BTC / USDJPY the next market mover?
Hello everyone,
Welcome to a new trading week and i hope it will be a good one. In this update i am talking about the fact that we might have reached peak rates in the US and the Fed are starting to rethink their strategy. I do not believe there will be any rate hikes for the December meeting. The data is starting to deteriorate and this is the lagging effect of higher interest rates.
I believe that the fed will cut rates before inflation reaches 2% in order to avoid a recession but this is just an idea. It will be very interesting to see what happens next. Don't sleep on the dollar yet, as even though Fed will pause and everything, there might be concerns coming out of Europe since Germany is in contraction for like...forever...
An asset that i am watching right now is the Yen. This is something that i wanted to short for a very long time, i got impatient at some point and i got stopped but now i am starting to believe that i am right.
There are a few key takeaways for the yen:
- For how long do you think the carry trade will last? Some hedge funds are disagreeing and they see this way higher and the bets on yen selling are as high as in April 2022. I believe they are wrong. But nice to fuel for a squeeze on jpy longs imo (full article can be found on bloomberg)
- Is risk off gonna be a catalyst for JPY buying? Maybe
- Will BOJ finally unleash the shackles and hike after decades of ultra loose policy? That remains to be seen. But if they do, boy it will be a spectacle trust me. You will want to own yen
Hope you enjoy the update,
Stay safe and have a good week
Welcome to a new trading week and i hope it will be a good one. In this update i am talking about the fact that we might have reached peak rates in the US and the Fed are starting to rethink their strategy. I do not believe there will be any rate hikes for the December meeting. The data is starting to deteriorate and this is the lagging effect of higher interest rates.
I believe that the fed will cut rates before inflation reaches 2% in order to avoid a recession but this is just an idea. It will be very interesting to see what happens next. Don't sleep on the dollar yet, as even though Fed will pause and everything, there might be concerns coming out of Europe since Germany is in contraction for like...forever...
An asset that i am watching right now is the Yen. This is something that i wanted to short for a very long time, i got impatient at some point and i got stopped but now i am starting to believe that i am right.
There are a few key takeaways for the yen:
- For how long do you think the carry trade will last? Some hedge funds are disagreeing and they see this way higher and the bets on yen selling are as high as in April 2022. I believe they are wrong. But nice to fuel for a squeeze on jpy longs imo (full article can be found on bloomberg)
- Is risk off gonna be a catalyst for JPY buying? Maybe
- Will BOJ finally unleash the shackles and hike after decades of ultra loose policy? That remains to be seen. But if they do, boy it will be a spectacle trust me. You will want to own yen
Hope you enjoy the update,
Stay safe and have a good week
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