EURO how far is it retracing?

EURUSD hit the upper fork of Modified Schiff Pitchfork (blue) and is currently retracing. There are two scenarios:

1. The bullish one is to retrace 0.238 of the latest up leg, at the median line of blue pitchfork;
2. The bearish one is to retrace 0.618 to the cross of lower blue pitchfork and the larger red pitchfork.

Either case, velocity needs to turn upwards along with acceleration. Ideally, velocity gets to near zero line before turning up.
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