Shot Calling no1
Updated
I've been away quite some time,. working on strategy and just growing accounts.
This is to serve as a trade record for forex. I also trade futures, but that is too fast for here.
Current Active Trade:
Current setup is I have a short from 1.08023, entered yesterday post NFP. Thinking the extension is a clean breakout from the triangle pattern over the last week to take price long overall, but first we need to retrace.
Target:
1.074 for the short and then head for a long entry (Limit Price Set)
Looking for price to come back and then react long from 1.074 & continue making upwards pushes.
Account size: $1500 (EUR, Reset for the month back to...)
Current Entry Sizes 0.07 Lot
Risk: Rule of thumb 0.01 per $250, Previous balance before reset was 1848.53/250 = 0.07, keeping size currently in play.
Red lines mark sells:
The additional red lines above the entry are for protection. There is no stop loss on any position, ever. These are additional sells at the same size as the original entry.
Should this entry not work, price will either head up and catch the next level up at 1.086 (Trading view moved my lines back after I already set them, not going to fight it not saving 😤 they're close enough) and add short another 0.07, or it will miss the second entry, come back to target & we just have drawdown, boo hoo.
Should it fail completely, the third entry will get taken at 1.0976 for short.
How this is "Protection":
Math, in simple terms. It's a manipulation of breakeven on position. If the second entry gets triggered, the breakeven point is between the two entries. If the third short is also hit, then the breakeven is where the second entry is placed. These are exit points later should things go wrong.
The major breakout and peaks are "insurance" where we will 99% for sure get a reaction to the downside, it's just natural resistance behavior.
Same goes for the next trade, same idea with the blue lines already planned, should this succeed we go to no2, fail we make a different no2 idea.
Trading at or very near to the yellow lines (clear and obvious levels) & using educated guessing for reasoning (technical analysis or just a simple "seen this before" approach) Keeping it really simple.
Method of Madness:
Support: buy
Resistance: sell
Add in if wrong at the next level
Hedge: Not forgotten, but avoid use if at all possible (Trap situation that hurts more than helps)
Only act on levels, near levels, or extreme event points (breakouts/peak points)
This is to serve as a trade record for forex. I also trade futures, but that is too fast for here.
Current Active Trade:
Current setup is I have a short from 1.08023, entered yesterday post NFP. Thinking the extension is a clean breakout from the triangle pattern over the last week to take price long overall, but first we need to retrace.
Target:
1.074 for the short and then head for a long entry (Limit Price Set)
Looking for price to come back and then react long from 1.074 & continue making upwards pushes.
Account size: $1500 (EUR, Reset for the month back to...)
Current Entry Sizes 0.07 Lot
Risk: Rule of thumb 0.01 per $250, Previous balance before reset was 1848.53/250 = 0.07, keeping size currently in play.
Red lines mark sells:
The additional red lines above the entry are for protection. There is no stop loss on any position, ever. These are additional sells at the same size as the original entry.
Should this entry not work, price will either head up and catch the next level up at 1.086 (Trading view moved my lines back after I already set them, not going to fight it not saving 😤 they're close enough) and add short another 0.07, or it will miss the second entry, come back to target & we just have drawdown, boo hoo.
Should it fail completely, the third entry will get taken at 1.0976 for short.
How this is "Protection":
Math, in simple terms. It's a manipulation of breakeven on position. If the second entry gets triggered, the breakeven point is between the two entries. If the third short is also hit, then the breakeven is where the second entry is placed. These are exit points later should things go wrong.
The major breakout and peaks are "insurance" where we will 99% for sure get a reaction to the downside, it's just natural resistance behavior.
Same goes for the next trade, same idea with the blue lines already planned, should this succeed we go to no2, fail we make a different no2 idea.
Trading at or very near to the yellow lines (clear and obvious levels) & using educated guessing for reasoning (technical analysis or just a simple "seen this before" approach) Keeping it really simple.
Method of Madness:
Support: buy
Resistance: sell
Add in if wrong at the next level
Hedge: Not forgotten, but avoid use if at all possible (Trap situation that hurts more than helps)
Only act on levels, near levels, or extreme event points (breakouts/peak points)
Trade active
Trade went active yesterday post NFP, Update to reflect current situation.Note
*Entry was post PMI and before FOMC minutes 🤦 those that follow know I don't care about news, high impact? Price will steal before and once it starts breaking the price will start moving, that is all I need to know.Price is currently holding at the 1.0814 as resistance, just reached above to false break topside and create so traps, *NFP is around the corner 🙃 for those that are following.
Still confident in the original idea, and should the plan prevail, the recent breakout entry will get promoted to shot call no3 while the target of the short will be the long entry at the same price and size (0.07)
See how Tokyo treats things
Note
Starting to see some breakdown in the lower time frames (<60 minute) thinking we're ready to start the retracement. Holding steadyNote
Second short triggered, but quite the move through the level. From this point though it looks like instead of a win it's time for management.Potential is there to still make some gain out of the process, but the extreme leap I think manage to breakeven from here, but see what we get.
EURUSD is very good at negating what it just did soon after when it makes a hard move in one direction, see if we get it this time too
Note
Observing the aftermath of the news I have a bit of faith left still in the target. We did fall out here in the past, and usually the top level of where we came from will be at least touched one more time before going long. Second entry was slipped in my favor to 1.08696, so picked up a bonus 9.6 pips on the short side.The over extension from where we last came from adds to my beliefs the target is still very valid, but we have to see what happens at the 830-840 range. If that level breaks we should see a hard punch down, as this would be a failure of a key level and also a break of a trend line we have starting from below.
Depending on how price behavior goes in the coming hours and around the key level will give more thoughts to which way of the many options available to manage.
If it keeps going up, and entry 3 is triggered, then all three orders will look to be flattened no questions asked as soon as price returns to the second entry. If it just keeps on even further , full hedge and work to roll/flip.
Otherwise, let the idea continue to run and just collect positive swaps while doing so.
Maximal drawdown so far has only reached -4%, which the Bitcoin trade covered earlier through management, and it's also still up, so overall he account is no worse or better than it startedwith plenty of room to work stress free
Note
Yes the trade is still on, price seems to be debating on finally breaking this steep trend line we've been riding now for about 3 weeks. So far, the position has not exceeded 6.5% in drawdown. Well short of the optimal 20% number but also trading BTC so no concerns of being undersized, as the other half is utilized elsewhere.Still thinking the same target at this time, but could be raised slightly, time changes everything but most of the idea with the target still seems plausible, though may take minute to get there. Still adding up positive swaps in the shorts, total accumulated so far is +€3.94 🤷🏻♂️ every bit counts
Note
Near even for all three, but risk is acceptable to try and let it ride to target still. Daily chart agreement, could see some whipsawing, as everyone is on hold for the "rest of the story" soon.
The chart says to me we're far out from fair values and the market is still overbalanced because of recent events driving the USD into ever higher territory.
The eurusd, regardless of what other currency does, is very determined to be efficient with the give and take balance. I still think we're going to or near target, and risk will not be a problem either way it decides on the next releases 🤷
Trade closed manually
Trade closed in net profit of €22. Need to divert attention away for a little bit. Slow since rest but overall between the BTC and EURUSD, net gain of €63 overall 👌
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