EURUSD continues to fall as the DXY moves higher and higher. Let's take a look into the factors affecting this FX pair over the next few weeks and months.
Interest Rates:
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates from 4.5% to 4.25% on 6 June 2024. Current Euro Area inflation rate sits at 2.6%. Real Interest Rate = 4.25% - 2.6% = 1.65%.
The Federal Reserve decided not to cut or raise rates on 12 June 2024. The current rate sits at 5.5%. Current US inflation sits at 3.3%. Real Interest Rate = 5.5% - 3.3% = 2.2%.
ECB Real Interest Rate (1.65%) is lower than the Federal Reserve Real Interest Rate (2.2%). Therefore, USD gains out perform that of the EUR.
Upcoming Events to keep in mind:
US New Home Sales - 26 June 2024
US Final GDP q/q - 27 June 2024
US Unemployment Claims - 27 June 2024
US Pending Home Sales m/m - 27 June 2024
US Core PCE Price Index m/m - 28 June 2024
French Elections - 30 June 2024
German CPI m/m - 1 July 2024
US ISM Manufacturing PMI - 1 July 2024
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y - 2 July 2024
US Job Openings - 2 July 2024
US Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, ISM Services, FOMC - 3 July 2024
US Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 5 July 2024
Target Price Levels:
1.067 - Break of this level signals continuation to the downside to 1.061. If price breaks this level then we can expect price to fall to 1.052 and then to 1.045.
My Trade Plan:
I will be looking for price to retrace and show a negative reaction to red folder news events over the coming days.
Good luck guys :)
Interest Rates:
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates from 4.5% to 4.25% on 6 June 2024. Current Euro Area inflation rate sits at 2.6%. Real Interest Rate = 4.25% - 2.6% = 1.65%.
The Federal Reserve decided not to cut or raise rates on 12 June 2024. The current rate sits at 5.5%. Current US inflation sits at 3.3%. Real Interest Rate = 5.5% - 3.3% = 2.2%.
ECB Real Interest Rate (1.65%) is lower than the Federal Reserve Real Interest Rate (2.2%). Therefore, USD gains out perform that of the EUR.
Upcoming Events to keep in mind:
US New Home Sales - 26 June 2024
US Final GDP q/q - 27 June 2024
US Unemployment Claims - 27 June 2024
US Pending Home Sales m/m - 27 June 2024
US Core PCE Price Index m/m - 28 June 2024
French Elections - 30 June 2024
German CPI m/m - 1 July 2024
US ISM Manufacturing PMI - 1 July 2024
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y - 2 July 2024
US Job Openings - 2 July 2024
US Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, ISM Services, FOMC - 3 July 2024
US Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 5 July 2024
Target Price Levels:
1.067 - Break of this level signals continuation to the downside to 1.061. If price breaks this level then we can expect price to fall to 1.052 and then to 1.045.
My Trade Plan:
I will be looking for price to retrace and show a negative reaction to red folder news events over the coming days.
Good luck guys :)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.