Long

EURUSD: New safe haven against major pairs?

Updated

This morning, I saw an educational video from transparent-fx and showed that the EURUSD is shaping an inverse H&S in D chart and indeed it is. Besides, in the H4 chart it comes from shaping a non-inverse H&S what makes you realise that the pair is experiencing a sideways movement since June 8. If the figure is finished, by June 30 EURUSD could reach 1.14. In addition, fundamental readings have been quite strong, coronavirus is contained in most of the european countries and even though Germany has seen a surge in covid19 cases, Merkel is still the Chancellor so she knows how to deal with this. On the other side of the Atlantic, US and Latin America are not improving which is why investors are running away from america (which has recently seen a spike in bankruptcies filing in the past week, 13-20 June) and embracing euro as the only safe currency since Japanese yen lost that condition when covid19 outbreak sparked the markets around Feb 24. So EURUSD might be the safest currency (inveur, investing.com's euro index is staying around 101, highs not seen since 2014) for this summer-autumn only, until everything drops down again.

Note

EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey(Jul) at -9.6, better than expected -12 but still negative as I expected. This sets the path for the pair to go to 1.1211 and maybe accomplish that inverse H&S pattern in the sideways movement.

Note

Watch out the new US-EU tradewar.

Note

Initial job less claims 1480 K (expected = 1300 K) makes the EURUSD rebounce from 1.1197 to 1.1217 for now.

Note

Bloomberg News provided today a more relaxed sentiment on the trade war, in my opinion. The "Google tax" would be applied progressively and at the beginning it would only affect those companies earning €750 million of annual revenues. This could make the euro boost continue.

Order cancelled

Disconfirming potential inverse H&S, cancelling trade.

alexinve

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