In the week following my initial analysis, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a significant decline of over 100 pips, reinforcing the bearish sentiment previously discussed. This movement has been fundamentally driven, particularly following the ECB's decision last week to cut rates by 25 basis points, which aligned with pre-announcement expectations. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the bank has shifted to a once-per-meeting pace of rate cuts, placing additional pressure on the Euro.
From a technical standpoint, the bearish trend remains intact. As noted earlier, the DXY (Dollar Index) has been on an upward trajectory since September 30, supported by what is being termed the "Trump trade." This theme is likely to persist through the week, as traders reassess potential outcomes ahead of the November 5 voting day. The anticipation of higher fiscal spending and tariffs under a center-right government tends to favor the corporate sector and supports a stronger dollar, which could further exacerbate the pressure on the Euro.
On the daily (D1) chart, an important support level at 1.0777 is currently in focus. The price action is approaching this support line, while the RSI indicates that the pair is deeply oversold. It will be crucial to observe the daily candlestick formation at the end of the trading day, as a strong close could signal either a rebound or a continuation of the downtrend.
In summary, while the technical indicators continue to point to bearish momentum, fundamental factors are currently driving the market. The interplay between these elements will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical standpoint, the bearish trend remains intact. As noted earlier, the DXY (Dollar Index) has been on an upward trajectory since September 30, supported by what is being termed the "Trump trade." This theme is likely to persist through the week, as traders reassess potential outcomes ahead of the November 5 voting day. The anticipation of higher fiscal spending and tariffs under a center-right government tends to favor the corporate sector and supports a stronger dollar, which could further exacerbate the pressure on the Euro.
On the daily (D1) chart, an important support level at 1.0777 is currently in focus. The price action is approaching this support line, while the RSI indicates that the pair is deeply oversold. It will be crucial to observe the daily candlestick formation at the end of the trading day, as a strong close could signal either a rebound or a continuation of the downtrend.
In summary, while the technical indicators continue to point to bearish momentum, fundamental factors are currently driving the market. The interplay between these elements will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.