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Euro / U.S. Dollar

EURUSD 4-8 Mar 2024 W10 Weekly Analysis - EU Rate / US NFP Week

By Amr-Sadek
This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 4-8 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

  1. Weekly
  2. Daily
  3. 4H
  4. Economic Events



Weekly Chart Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/j90gLZIv/

1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • Reached Swing EQ
  • (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)


2.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
  • Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and as expected we are targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low.
  • Price did the Bearish ChoCH and formed a fresh Supply zone which will be potential for shorts once reached to continue the Bearish INT structure and Swing too.


3.

  • With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
  • Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from which resulted in a Bearish CHoCH.
  • Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish.



Daily Chart Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jNeSo4PG/

1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bearish
  • Swing Continuation / INT Pullback


2.

  • Within the Daily Bearish Swing we reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone and formed a bearish iBOS confirming the Swing Pullback is over and we are Pro Bearish Swing and starting the Continuation Phase targeting the Weak Swing Low.


3.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we expected a Pullback.
  • After mitigating the Daily Demand zone we formed a Bullish CHoCH which confirmed the INT Structure Pullback Phase started.
  • Expectations is set now for the INT Structure Pullback Phase to continue to the INT EQ up to the Daily/Weekly Supply. But be mindful that the Swing Bearish continuation can continue at any time.
  • There is no HP POI for Shorts up to the Daily/Weekly Supply Zones.
  • IMO Price could continue up to sweep LIQ from the INT Momentum Phase that leaded to the iBOS before we continue down.


4.

  • Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.


4H Chart Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RsLUn5xF/

1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bullish
  • Swing Pullback Phase


2.

  • After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
  • As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
  • Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
  • Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.


3.

  • After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
  • Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
  • We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
  • Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
  • As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
  • Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.



Economic Events for the Week

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tf7udnGu/
Chart PatternsEUREURUSDHTFliquidityMultiple Time Frame AnalysissmartmoneyconceptSMCstructureSupply and DemandUSDWeekly Charts
Amr-Sadek
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