Whatever happens with Greece now - it will probably way down on the Euro area and the currency
The whole things has become tedious and seems without end:
In case of a Grexit the Euro will probably enter a (slow) decline;
in case of a 'yes' vote tomorrow, the Euro will show (maybe) a relief rally and when everyone realizes again
that the negotiations and BS will be dragging on forever, Eur/Usd will start falling again
From a purely technical point of view I am hoping for a (small) relief rally to be able to sell:
From the last Gap to the previous highs gives me a Fibonacci expansion of 61.8% around 1.1228
and where this line cuts through the downward resistance trend-line seems a good spot to sell
I am expecting a 'yes' vote from the Greeks, because the majority of the people want to keep the Euro;
so, if Eur/Usd reaches my 'sell' area -- let's say: just above 1.12
I will be selling Eur/Usd with a SL of 1.1250 (this price action would break downward decline)
my target will be a break of support trend-line which lies around 1.11 at the moment
In case of gradual decline after a 'yes' vote rally dies down, and traders become sick of Greece again
I will probably TP just above trend-line support, let's say: 1.1125
In case of 'fast' price action, and a break of trend-line support, I will be looking to reload on a test of the broken trend-line, and will be adding to my short position there, I do not really expect any wild rides any more, but if it happens:
in this case I will need to re-evaluate my TP ( I may keep shorts to wait for a break of 1.05 again)
See also:
news.forexlive.com/!/greek-referendum-cheatsheet-from-credit-suisse-20150704
The whole things has become tedious and seems without end:
In case of a Grexit the Euro will probably enter a (slow) decline;
in case of a 'yes' vote tomorrow, the Euro will show (maybe) a relief rally and when everyone realizes again
that the negotiations and BS will be dragging on forever, Eur/Usd will start falling again
From a purely technical point of view I am hoping for a (small) relief rally to be able to sell:
From the last Gap to the previous highs gives me a Fibonacci expansion of 61.8% around 1.1228
and where this line cuts through the downward resistance trend-line seems a good spot to sell
I am expecting a 'yes' vote from the Greeks, because the majority of the people want to keep the Euro;
so, if Eur/Usd reaches my 'sell' area -- let's say: just above 1.12
I will be selling Eur/Usd with a SL of 1.1250 (this price action would break downward decline)
my target will be a break of support trend-line which lies around 1.11 at the moment
In case of gradual decline after a 'yes' vote rally dies down, and traders become sick of Greece again
I will probably TP just above trend-line support, let's say: 1.1125
In case of 'fast' price action, and a break of trend-line support, I will be looking to reload on a test of the broken trend-line, and will be adding to my short position there, I do not really expect any wild rides any more, but if it happens:
in this case I will need to re-evaluate my TP ( I may keep shorts to wait for a break of 1.05 again)
See also:
news.forexlive.com/!/greek-referendum-cheatsheet-from-credit-suisse-20150704
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.