11/22 EU Monthly Bullish Swing for the Stars
Updated
Hello all, here is my Update of what I am seeing on EU
Just to give context the:
Orange line - 4h
Yellow line - Daily
Red line - 1h
White line - Monthly
Black line - Weekly
I am more of a dynamic trader and will intraday, or swing depending on the situation and sometimes can take my entries on the 1m like i did for this position which allowed for me to have a 5 pip Stop loss in this instance
I use dynamic trend lines meaning i move them and adjust them as the market develops and when candles close, so what may look like a lot of lines really isn't what I have up all the time. This is just for visual aid to show you what I can see without the lines (sometimes)
now with that out of the way.
After my previous EU posts and losses I re analyzed and let the market play out a bit more and was able to see an area that I had not marked off as a weekly support although after a previous push up it broke the then resistance and is now using it for support
I was able to zoom in on the daily and analyze the area where it broke and retested on the monthly now on the daily timeframe and mark of a zone that aligned with the Monthly support. This helped me to build my confluence.
We also have the currently Weekly candle over more recent Weekly and Monthly Support, which also further adds to my idea of a transitions and list of confluences. As I've stated before we usually get that deeper pullback on those support and resistance areas sometimes, that is something I have personally noticed with EU
I was then able to zoom in on the 4h with all of this info now known and analyze the exhaustion I was seeing on the higher timeframe, this led me to notice the 4H support formed during London session, and I was able to mark that off as a 4H support area and use that as a base to zoom in more to find a lower timeframe zone that aligned with the 4h support
I then zoomed in to the 15m because that timeframe correlates with 4h and I was able to see a zone that I personally marked off on the 5m but can clearly be seen on the 15m. At NY (or a little before) I was able to mark off the 1h Support and resistance (red lines) this helped me to see if it broke on the lower timeframes to then wait a bit more and possibly re analyze for a different entry, but we just tested the 1h support and on the close of the candle at 11:30 I entered for a long targeting 1.15580 risking 5 pips
I do feel that next weeks news and closure will be the determining factor as far as holding long term but I will continue to update and manage the position and scale in when possible. I do have all of my confluences in alignment so I am confident in this position after re-assessing things. I know it is Friday and there isn't much volume left in the market but I will be back bright and early next week!
Just to give context the:
Orange line - 4h
Yellow line - Daily
Red line - 1h
White line - Monthly
Black line - Weekly
I am more of a dynamic trader and will intraday, or swing depending on the situation and sometimes can take my entries on the 1m like i did for this position which allowed for me to have a 5 pip Stop loss in this instance
I use dynamic trend lines meaning i move them and adjust them as the market develops and when candles close, so what may look like a lot of lines really isn't what I have up all the time. This is just for visual aid to show you what I can see without the lines (sometimes)
now with that out of the way.
After my previous EU posts and losses I re analyzed and let the market play out a bit more and was able to see an area that I had not marked off as a weekly support although after a previous push up it broke the then resistance and is now using it for support
I was able to zoom in on the daily and analyze the area where it broke and retested on the monthly now on the daily timeframe and mark of a zone that aligned with the Monthly support. This helped me to build my confluence.
We also have the currently Weekly candle over more recent Weekly and Monthly Support, which also further adds to my idea of a transitions and list of confluences. As I've stated before we usually get that deeper pullback on those support and resistance areas sometimes, that is something I have personally noticed with EU
I was then able to zoom in on the 4h with all of this info now known and analyze the exhaustion I was seeing on the higher timeframe, this led me to notice the 4H support formed during London session, and I was able to mark that off as a 4H support area and use that as a base to zoom in more to find a lower timeframe zone that aligned with the 4h support
I then zoomed in to the 15m because that timeframe correlates with 4h and I was able to see a zone that I personally marked off on the 5m but can clearly be seen on the 15m. At NY (or a little before) I was able to mark off the 1h Support and resistance (red lines) this helped me to see if it broke on the lower timeframes to then wait a bit more and possibly re analyze for a different entry, but we just tested the 1h support and on the close of the candle at 11:30 I entered for a long targeting 1.15580 risking 5 pips
I do feel that next weeks news and closure will be the determining factor as far as holding long term but I will continue to update and manage the position and scale in when possible. I do have all of my confluences in alignment so I am confident in this position after re-assessing things. I know it is Friday and there isn't much volume left in the market but I will be back bright and early next week!
Trade active
Just adding this here, Market opened with a 60 pip gap and I was able to mark that as a 1m zone that I suspect that market will use to create a monthly support then in the future use this area as a POI for a short. We will see but just putting it here to come back to since it is apart of this move and is useful to note. This will become invalid if price pushes all the way through it but I doubt that happens anytime soon. Again just how I am seeing things.
Note
We are making slow and steady progress and are making our way up. I am just keeping up with market structure and making sure things are still aligning throughout the timeframes
Note
Floating over 180 pips in profit now still just managing the position and following trend
Note
Entered a small scale in position on the 1m and noted what I saw and how I entered. I am targeting the same overall target for the move. I saw and was able to enter this scale in based on the same steps i used to enter the overall move
Note
We are still in the position floating 102 pips in profit currently. I am in drawdown on my scale in position but since it is a small position I am not yet cutting into my profits to make me negative and since I am on a FIFO account I have my SL based on my original entry. Making sure to be aware of my free margin and not overlarge when scaling in to leave room for fluctuations since I am working on scaling in!
What we see here is a situation where we have a lot of confluence!
We have a weekly support (white), Daily support (yellow line), 4h support (orange line), and a 1h support (red) all aligning and not only those all being crossed but we have exhaustion on the 4h which is one of my Higher time frames that I analyze on. As well as my zones marked off that are all aligning. Again a multitude of confluence just to give me a reason to zoom in on the exhaustion. I can then zoom in to better understand and break down that area.
Note
We would now zoom into the 30m timeframe because that aligns with the 4h that we saw the exhaustion on. On the 30m we can see that the market is starting to break into an uptrend. We are just waiting for the 30m to break the 1h resistance (red line) this will give further reason and probability for the market to go up
Note
As you can see we had a break of that resistance on the 30m and that has given me more probability for it to continue bullish. took some time but here we are. Slow and steady wins the race
Adjusted my 1h areas to recent price action. This helps me continue to follow the flow of the market.
Note
An update after the break on the 30m we had the push up and break showing the continuation of the uptrend then we had our deeper pullback after that we usually get showing that this is the new 30m HL
Trade closed: target reached
On the 1h we placed a fib from the swing low to high to measure the pullback and we can see a TON of sellers exhaustion on the 1h giving us reasons to zoom in as well as the rejection of the 4h support as well. We also got a pullback past the 38.2 and the continuation of the uptrend on the lower timeframes
Note
So, since the last update we have gotten more movement upwards and I have adjusted my dynamic trend lines to current price action. I have also drawn my 30m zone indicating where I think the market could possibly pull back to for NFP before continuing up. This is based on a 1h and if we get a clean close and exhaustion below the 38.2 that will give further reason to go up. The 1h fib is a visual reference for what I can see without it being on the chart. We will have to continue to monitor and play it by how the candle close on the 1h and 4h these next couple of hours
Note
currently floating 168 pips in profitNote
Here is a current overall view of the move. I removed some things for a clearer view of the candles
Note
Still in the position. We have reached the 30m zones that I marked off and I scaled into a 4th entry. Currently a bit in profit as I type this but did experience 12 pips of drawdown from my initial entry. I jumped the gun a bit but I've already noted how I could have better entered in my notes.
I have marked off where I will CONSIDER exiting my longs if I get full bearish closes in the area noted. I still have the same overall target and continue to scale in and manage my free margin in this move and continue to follow how the market is flowing
Note
Here is my 3m entry of my scaler in. I noted which candle I entered on
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