EurUsd - A plan for October
Updated
I will start the updates with the currencies today. In the gold idea I will refer to many things I mention here.
I was watching closely the EurUsd and the USDJPY today around the NFP news. The EurUsd was not able to break the pattern's neckline at or after the news and it bounced. I still think the intermediate decline is not finished yet. The right translated pattern is simply not enough to finish this half year rally in the EurUsd. So we will print one more daily cycle . This daily cycle will top lower than the previous daily cycle - I think around 1.19. These kind of last daily cycles of the intermediate cycle are usually can be traded successfully. Especially this time it seems we are printing a H&S pattern...
I think today we printed the DCL in this vehicle and it's just starting to bounce for 8-12 days. I will try to go short at 1.1900-1.1920 or at around the 18-19th October. Once the top is in it will start to drop to the neckline again. The panic selling will start at the break of today's low.
Notice that the 200 EMA will be around 1.14 at that time and the target price counted from the height of the H&S is at around 1.12.
If you take a look at my previous idea the FIBO 38,2% is at 1.1428 and the FIBO 50% is at 1.1221...
I think each piece of jigsaw puzzle is in place.
I will set this idea as a LONG idea, BUT I'M NOT GOING TO TRADE THIS.
This is going to be a 100-150 pip bounce but I don't think it will be easy to trade:
- it will go up very - very slowly
- or it will have big bounces and give back all the gains next day(s)
We are just waiting for this last daily cycle to peak out at around 1.19 and go short again from there.
I will use my margin on the gold trade as the real gains should be there this time .
I was watching closely the EurUsd and the USDJPY today around the NFP news. The EurUsd was not able to break the pattern's neckline at or after the news and it bounced. I still think the intermediate decline is not finished yet. The right translated pattern is simply not enough to finish this half year rally in the EurUsd. So we will print one more daily cycle . This daily cycle will top lower than the previous daily cycle - I think around 1.19. These kind of last daily cycles of the intermediate cycle are usually can be traded successfully. Especially this time it seems we are printing a H&S pattern...
I think today we printed the DCL in this vehicle and it's just starting to bounce for 8-12 days. I will try to go short at 1.1900-1.1920 or at around the 18-19th October. Once the top is in it will start to drop to the neckline again. The panic selling will start at the break of today's low.
Notice that the 200 EMA will be around 1.14 at that time and the target price counted from the height of the H&S is at around 1.12.
If you take a look at my previous idea the FIBO 38,2% is at 1.1428 and the FIBO 50% is at 1.1221...
I think each piece of jigsaw puzzle is in place.
I will set this idea as a LONG idea, BUT I'M NOT GOING TO TRADE THIS.
This is going to be a 100-150 pip bounce but I don't think it will be easy to trade:
- it will go up very - very slowly
- or it will have big bounces and give back all the gains next day(s)
We are just waiting for this last daily cycle to peak out at around 1.19 and go short again from there.
I will use my margin on the gold trade as the real gains should be there this time .
Note
Following the plan. Small green candles day after day. If we have one big green candle we are going to give it back the next day... It should be a "suffering surge" up to 1,19 in 8-10 days. When the shoulder is ready we are going to give back the whole surge in 2-3 days back to the neckline....Note
Trade closed manually
Though I didn't trade this I suggest to close the long positions for those who took this trade.Note
No shorts yet but we are getting close.Note
Note
1.1880-90 is a short entry IMHO.Note
It's a bit early but following the plan.Note
Note
One of the toughest right shoulder I've ever seen but we are breaking it down
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