EUR / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES
Updated
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In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
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| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the >
EURUSD <- We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.
- As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.
- This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: "EUR / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES" (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels)
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
- Looking at the big monthly chart picture, we can see that we are still in a downtrend channel that started in 2008.
- The market has been moving up since last September to test the upper trend line of the channel. There will most likely be another run-up attempt by the price, which will come after the current bottoming.
- In the weekly chart - MACD indicator, one can already see a clear "Bearish Divergence", which argues for an HTF sell-off.
- However, in the 1-day chart, one can sense a further move to the upside, which will extend the bearish divergence more to the extreme in the higher timeframes.
- At the current moment of analysis, we are on very strong support areas, which could be the bottom for the next move to the upside.
Z- You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one -Z
| ZielIstDieAutarkie |
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Thank you and happy trading!Z
Note
2-WEEK - TIME FRAME1-WEEK - TIME FRAME
1-DAY - TIME FRAME
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the candle close has a much longer upper shadow than the lower one, which underlines the selling pressure.
> The "CLOSE" occurred above the trendline (yellow), which served as significant support and resistance for the price. This was breached for the first time since loss with the weekly close 3 weeks ago and would need to be confirmed with the upcoming weekly close to regain its position as a resistance area.
> If we look at the uptrend channel, whose mid-trend line served as support to the last weekly close, this was significantly broken with the weekly close that has now occurred.
> We get additional support from a parallel trendline, which is located in the overarching HTF downtrend channel (turquoise) and generated several reactions in the past.
The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement, are still pending to be worked off:
= 0.88 (1.08856)
= 0.618 - 0.65 (1.08753 - 1.08550)
= 0.75 - 0.786 (1.07917 - 1.07690)
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below serves as additional support.
> The MA (20, 50, 100) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 200) - serve as resistance.
> The MACD indicator achieved a bearish cross, confirming negative momentum.
> The RSI indicator broke through the 50% midline. Thus, we are still in a NEUTRAL area, but the negative momentum is also visible here.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
OVERVIEW
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= it should be noted that the subordinate market structure was broken - which opens further room to fall.
> The "CLOSE" occurred below the Parallel Trendline (Turquoise) of the existing HTF downtrend channel, which now serves as resistance.
> The line drawn in yellow is a HTF support line, which has already been confirmed by the market as resistance in the INTRA-DAY and will try to do so in the HTF with the coming weekly closes.
= for this reason, one can expect a run-up to the yellow trend line in the INTRA-DAY and depending on the INTRA-DAY reaction, the down-sale continues or is interrupted.
> The next HTF support is the brown uptrend channel, which with some other components represents a very good entry opportunity for a LONG.
= If a LONG scenario is confirmed in the INTRA-DAY, there will be a separate IDEA regarding this.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.75-0.786 (1.07917 - 1.07690)
- MA | 50; 100 (1.0775)
- POI | 1.0800 & 1.0700
- MSB | HTF = HL/20 (1.06359) | MTF = HL/23 (1.08333)
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1.09843)
- MA | 5; 8; 20; 200 (1.093 - 1.1000)
- POI | 1.09300 & 1.09500points
- MSB | MTF = HL/23 (1.09122)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 40% line, continuing to indicate a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle did not form a formation to be highlighted
= note that the wick of the candle has a greater length than the shadow cast by the candle.
> The "CLOSE" confirmed the parallel trendline (turquoise) of the existing HTF downtrend channel, which now serves as resistance.
> We are at the bottom of the Subordinate Uptrend Channel, which is proven as support in combination with the 100 MA.
> The weekly and daily DEMAND zone already achieved a reaction in the market and the next week this area (ITD) will be contested.
> The next HTF supports are the Fibonacci levels noted below and the "Higher Low" of 2020 (1.06359).
= Should a LONG scenario be confirmed in the INTRA-DAY, there will be a separate IDEA regarding this.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.786 - 0.88 (1.07703 - 1.07113) & 0.328 (1.06726)
- MA | 50; 100 (1.0635 & 1.0765)
- POI | 1.0700 & 1.0745
- MSB | HTF = HL/20 (1.06359)
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1.09305) | ITD = 0.328 - 0.88 (1.08630 - 1.10286 points)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1.07658- 1.10649)
- POI | 1.09300 & 1.09500points
- MSB | MTF = HH/23 (1.09122) & HL/23 (1.08333)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator is about to break the 30% line, slowly arriving at the oversold zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the candle close has an extreme wick, highlighting the selling pressure.
> The HTF trendline (brown), which served as significant support and resistance for the price, was successfully tested as resistance before the further sell-off.
> Now we are at the bottom of the HTF subordinate uptrend channel and will try to break it next week.
> In the daily view, you can see quite nicely the ab-sale of the last 2-days, indicating very strong selling pressure.
SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.786 - 0.88 (1.07703 - 1.07113) & 0.328 (1.06726) & 1.618 (1.06563)
- MA | 50; 100 (1.07572 & 1.06481)
- POI | 1.0700 & 1.0745
- MSB | HTF = HL/20 (1.06359)
RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1.09305) | ITD = 0.328 - 0.88 (1.08630 - 1.10286 points)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1.08778 - 1.09702)
- POI | 1.08000 & 1.09300 - 9500 points
- MSB | MTF = HH/23 (1.09122) & HL/23 (1.08333)
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator remains in front of the 30% line, continuing to indicate a neutral zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
MONTH - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle formed a "BEARISH ENGULFING"
= this indicates a possible downtrend continuation
> The candle broke through the HTF trendline support (brown), turning it into resistance.
> The Medium Term Uptrend Channel served as support for the price and could trigger a strong reaction.
> The next Significant Support is the Higher Low of 2020 (1.06359), which in combination with the HTF-FIB (0.328) could trigger a strong reaction.
> Should this level not hold, a panic driven sell-off will be unleashed.
1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> We are at the "Higher Low" of 2020 (1.06359), which served as support for the weekly close.
> If this level is broken, only the Fibonacci levels drawn in as support will be able to gain a reaction.
> If these supports are broken intra-day, we may expect a continued down-sale.
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the chart image below.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has a 25% line, indicating an incipient oversold zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
Note
WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.
> We are at the "Higher Low" of 2020 (1.06359), which served as support for the weekly close. This was broken intra-day and is currently resulting in another down-sale.
> The market will try to run to the "Higher Low" of 2023 (1.05160) to take liquidity with it.
> Additionally, we are experiencing support from the parallel line of the trend channel (Yellow), which has been a "POI" for the market in the past.
SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the chart image below.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.
INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed the 20% line, indicating an incipient oversold zone.
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)
(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)
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