EURUSD H1 04/12/2024 - SELL below 1.04900 OR BUY above 1.05150
Time Frame Analysis
D1 (Daily Timeframe)
H4 (4-Hour Timeframe)
Trend: Price is consolidating below the 200 SMA and inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating uncertainty.
H1 (Hourly Timeframe)
Trend: Consolidating within a tight range of 1.0490–1.0510.
Trade Scenarios
Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (BUY Setup)
Rationale: If the price holds above 1.0490 support and breaks above 1.0515, it could target the next resistance levels.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Above 1.0515 (breakout confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0490 (below consolidation support).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0530 (H4 Ichimoku resistance).
TP2: 1.0550 (Daily resistance level).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (SELL Setup)
Rationale: If the price breaks below 1.0490, it could target lower support levels, aligning with the broader bearish trend.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Below 1.0490 (breakdown confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0510 (above consolidation).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0465 (next key support).
TP2: 1.0440 (H4 and Daily support area).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Correlated Instruments to Monitor
DXY (US Dollar Index):
A weaker DXY supports the BUY scenario (EUR/USD up).
A stronger DXY supports the SELL scenario (EUR/USD down).
Gold (XAU/USD):
If gold rises, it could weaken the USD and support a BUY trade on EUR/USD.
US 10-Year Treasury Yields:
Rising yields favor USD strength (SELL scenario).
Falling yields favor USD weakness (BUY scenario).
D1 (Daily Timeframe)
- Trend: Bearish overall, with the price below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 200 SMA. However, the price is consolidating above the 1.0490–1.0500 support zone.
- Indicators:
RSI: 38.7, near oversold but stabilizing.
Stochastic: Slightly bearish but approaching a bullish crossover near 50.
MACD: Negative but narrowing, showing consolidation. - Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0550–1.0580 (Daily Ichimoku and prior highs).
Support: 1.0480–1.0490 (Key structural support).
H4 (4-Hour Timeframe)
Trend: Price is consolidating below the 200 SMA and inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating uncertainty.
- Indicators:
RSI: 44, slightly bearish.
Stochastic: Neutral, with potential for a bullish crossover.
MACD: Negative but flat, showing low momentum. - Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0530 (upper Ichimoku boundary), 1.0550.
Support: 1.0490 (lower Ichimoku boundary), 1.0465.
H1 (Hourly Timeframe)
Trend: Consolidating within a tight range of 1.0490–1.0510.
- Indicators:
RSI: 46, leaning bearish but neutral.
Stochastic: Slight bearish crossover but near oversold, with potential for reversal.
MACD: Flat, showing consolidation.
ATR: 16 pips, indicating low volatility. - Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0515–1.0530 (recent highs and Ichimoku resistance).
Support: 1.0490 (current floor), 1.0465 (next support below).
M30 (30-Minute Timeframe) - Trend: Similar to H1, consolidating within a tight range.
- Indicators: Neutral with signs of potential support near 1.0490.
Trade Scenarios
Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (BUY Setup)
Rationale: If the price holds above 1.0490 support and breaks above 1.0515, it could target the next resistance levels.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Above 1.0515 (breakout confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0490 (below consolidation support).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0530 (H4 Ichimoku resistance).
TP2: 1.0550 (Daily resistance level).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (SELL Setup)
Rationale: If the price breaks below 1.0490, it could target lower support levels, aligning with the broader bearish trend.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Below 1.0490 (breakdown confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0510 (above consolidation).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0465 (next key support).
TP2: 1.0440 (H4 and Daily support area).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Correlated Instruments to Monitor
DXY (US Dollar Index):
A weaker DXY supports the BUY scenario (EUR/USD up).
A stronger DXY supports the SELL scenario (EUR/USD down).
Gold (XAU/USD):
If gold rises, it could weaken the USD and support a BUY trade on EUR/USD.
US 10-Year Treasury Yields:
Rising yields favor USD strength (SELL scenario).
Falling yields favor USD weakness (BUY scenario).
Note
SELL trade was executed, however it has triggered the S/L, I have opened the BUY trade manually
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