Long

EURUSD: Bottom's in

Updated

Just wanted to document my trade entry...I think we have the bottom in the Euro here.
See my related idea for more insight into the analysis.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.

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The bs in EURUSD is disgusting...haha, right at London close, they go stop hunting.

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(if we're not stopped out, we have very good odds of catching a sizeable rally)
Crossing fingers.

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"if we get stopped out we'll have to try again after volatility quietens down.
It's possible, so I'm not too concerned, let's see if the stop is hit or not on Monday. If it reverses sharply, we'll be forced to reenter by then.
A possible solution, since we didn't stay up for the day is to reduce the position and widen the stop, or simply exit now and reenter next Monday after the Draghi speech. I leave that to your discretion."

Keep risk to 0.5-1% of your account size if the stop is hit. If you want to widen the stop, use a stop 100 pips under today's low and reduce your size to risk only 1% max, or 0.5%.

Watch it at today's close specially, if we close up for the day, we have less to worry about. Before the close, decide if you want to:
#1 Hold
#2 Widen stop and reduce size (100 pips under today's low
#3 Exit and reenter after the news on Monday.

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Holding for now, didn't trim it yet.

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I reduced size by 80% and removed the stop. I'll wait and see how it evolves before I add back to it.

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I'm waiting for today's close to add back to longs...unless we have a spike after Draghi talks today.

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I'm flat EURUSD for now, but watching. I think Silver's outperforming gold currently, and we are seeing AUDUSD outperforming EURUSD as well. Until we get a risk off rally, the rally in gold and the euro are suspicious to me.
I'm interested in getting involved, but I'll wait for now.
Also monitoring bonds for entry.

Trade closed manually

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Price went nowhere for a couple days, not particularly bullish, probably awaiting a fundamental catalyst.
Gold and silver are acting similarly.

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Again, stop hunting after options expiration in this case.

We'll continue to see this type of behavior for a while. I'd assume it's risky to trade gold, silver, euro, yen trying to fade the current trend before December FOMC even...

Next week, futures rollover, and also a bullish signal might trigger in these intruments (euro/yen/gold/silver). We can just trade the Euro, or only trade Silver, and it would be plenty, since they are all pretty much the same, specially in this market enviroment where they anticorrelate SPX with perfection.
Means risk on sentiment is strong, and #2 that there's foreign direct investment coming to USA.

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What is the actionabl advice here?

Do nothing, if you want, trade one of these instruments, you can take your pick.
I'll try to go long USDJPY and USDSEK when viable, and try to buy silver next week if viable. No need to trade all of them. If you do, trade smaller.

IvanLabrie

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EURUSD: Monitoring the decline

by IvanLabrie

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