EUR/USD MACD Divergence - Short or Long for the summer?

Updated
EUR/USD downtrend has been strong for a while, and contrarians (including me) have been looking for a turn-around. Charts show divergent behaviour on MACD & RSI compared to chart - so maybe looking to turn the trend.

So, scenaros:

1. (in my opinion most likely): Continue down to next resistance in some 50 pips, back up to consolidate then next heavy down-turn. Anybody observing macro economics ATM should see some support for this idea.

2. Stronger reversal at next big resistance level...

Happy to see comments with your opinions!

I'm out.
Note
Up-and-turn at 1.17 level as expected, let’s see if it continues below 1.16.
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