EURUSD Insight

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Key Points
- The U.S. and China have imposed retaliatory tariffs on each other, escalating trade tensions. As a result, the "Sell USA" sentiment has intensified, causing the U.S. Dollar Index to fall below the 100 level.
- The market expects that, due to the high tariffs between the U.S. and China, most trade—except for essential goods and high-margin items—will come to a complete halt. This is likely to lead to a rise in consumer prices.
- Amid growing concerns of a recession, U.S. Treasury bonds are failing to serve as safe-haven assets, raising doubts about the dollar. Most currencies have strengthened against the dollar.
- This week, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 0.25% at its April monetary policy meeting.

Key Economic Events This Week
+ April 16: U.K. March CPI, Eurozone March CPI, U.S. March Retail Sales, Bank of Canada Rate Decision
+ April 17: ECB Rate Decision, Fed Chair Powell Speech
+ April 18: Easter Holiday

EURUSD Chart Analysis
After a strong rally that formed a peak near the 1.15000 level, EUR/USD has partially retraced its gains. In the short term, further downside is expected, with 1.12500 likely to act as a key support level. A rebound is anticipated around this zone; however, if the price breaks below it, a deeper decline could follow. Should that happen, a new trading strategy will be established.

Disclaimer

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