EURUSD
A quarter-trillion dollar pile of distressed debt is threatening to drag the developing world into a historic cascade of defaults. Domino in EM will being soon. This is war, nothing else, weaponazion of USD is just one front. TUSD could well be the wrecking ball which sparks a further deterioration in risk appetite, with the DXY continuing to trade north of the psychologically key 107 handle. Nomura says that according to his calculations, the absolute minimum of the eur/usd would have been reached in February 1985 when there was a similar energy crisis and the ratio reached 0.6444. Worst year for the bond market since 1865. Best year for commodities since 1946, worst year for equities since 1875. As Druckenmiller said "I do not short stocks during the bear market because bear market rallies will cut your head off as you rush to cover your short." MOVE Index, more than VIX, at this moment, is signaling us something very important that could happen in a short time. MOVE is on pandemic highs, the dollar is armed against EM, China and Russia, Europe is collapsing. What can go wrong?
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