EUR/USD – LONG (BUY)
Updated
EUR/USD are showing clear CYCLE UPTREND with an ENGULFING BULL CANDLE on the monthly chart.
The WEEKLY DEMAND ZONE was retested (2nd test) which created a clear uptrend.
The DAILY TREND-LINE indicates a clear PRIMARY UPTREND and this is the trend-line that we will be trading. (see trend-line 4 to 5 on chart)
Intermediate Elliot Waves will occur during this trend. The Intermediate Elliot Wave is currently showing a downwards trend, you can wait until it reaches the DAILY TREND-LINE and creates a trend reversal again or enter this trade immediately, it is up to you.
The Weekly trend is Bearish
The Daily trend is Bearish
The H4 trend is Bearish
So we are going against the general trend due to various other factors showing a PRIMARY UPTREND which is the trend-line we are trading. (see trend-line 4 to 5 on chart)
Institutional Order Flow Areas (aka Supply & Demand):
Demand – Fairly Large amount of Institutional Buy Orders
Supply - Fairly Large amount of Institutional Sell Orders
The weekly demand area (green area) is showing clear resistance with 2 tests unable to break through.
The weekly supply area have only been tested once without being able to break through.
COT (Commitment of Traders) Report Analysis:
The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It aggregates the holdings of participants in the U.S. futures markets (primarily based in Chicago and New York), where commodities, metals, and currencies are bought and sold.
COT (Commitments of Traders) increased their long positions and also increased their short positions. This simply means the they are position building with a steady increase of long positions over the last 5 weeks.
Fundamental Consideration:
What: Fed Chair Powell Speaks (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell)
When: Wednesday 17 July (05h00 NZ time)
Description: Due to deliver a speech titled "Aspects of Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Era" at the French G7 Presidency 2019, in Paris
Why Traders care: Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy
Impact Level: HIGH
What to do: Should you expect a negative impact on this trade, consider hedging your trade.
Retail FX Community Outlook:
Retail Community Outlook is a statistical analysis on what the market perception is under Retail Traders like you and me, this does not include Banks and big Corporate Financial Institutions.
The Retail Community Outlook for this trade is as follows:
Around 101372 positions SHORT – 57%
Around 70390 positions LONG – 43%
This trade is LONG – we go AGAINST majority of retail traders, which is GOOD depending on where the COT analysis for this trade currently is.
Entry:
Immediate Entry at: 1.12409
Take Profit:
TP1: 1.14000 (move SL to TP1 once reached)
TP2: 1.15103
Stop Loss:
Stop Loss at around 1.11777
Good Luck – Trade Responsible
Use 1% risk per Position!
Always strive to continuously improve your trading strategy and knowledge
“Rise and Rise Again until Lambs becomes Lions”
Full acknowledgment and courtesy towards DaveFXHunter with his insight and guidance on this trade idea (and many other) I have learned more from Dave in a short time than what I could ever have learned from so-called experts all over the internet.
Please feel free to follow Dave at tradingview.com/u/DaweFXHunter/
The WEEKLY DEMAND ZONE was retested (2nd test) which created a clear uptrend.
The DAILY TREND-LINE indicates a clear PRIMARY UPTREND and this is the trend-line that we will be trading. (see trend-line 4 to 5 on chart)
Intermediate Elliot Waves will occur during this trend. The Intermediate Elliot Wave is currently showing a downwards trend, you can wait until it reaches the DAILY TREND-LINE and creates a trend reversal again or enter this trade immediately, it is up to you.
The Weekly trend is Bearish
The Daily trend is Bearish
The H4 trend is Bearish
So we are going against the general trend due to various other factors showing a PRIMARY UPTREND which is the trend-line we are trading. (see trend-line 4 to 5 on chart)
Institutional Order Flow Areas (aka Supply & Demand):
Demand – Fairly Large amount of Institutional Buy Orders
Supply - Fairly Large amount of Institutional Sell Orders
The weekly demand area (green area) is showing clear resistance with 2 tests unable to break through.
The weekly supply area have only been tested once without being able to break through.
COT (Commitment of Traders) Report Analysis:
The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It aggregates the holdings of participants in the U.S. futures markets (primarily based in Chicago and New York), where commodities, metals, and currencies are bought and sold.
COT (Commitments of Traders) increased their long positions and also increased their short positions. This simply means the they are position building with a steady increase of long positions over the last 5 weeks.
Fundamental Consideration:
What: Fed Chair Powell Speaks (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell)
When: Wednesday 17 July (05h00 NZ time)
Description: Due to deliver a speech titled "Aspects of Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Era" at the French G7 Presidency 2019, in Paris
Why Traders care: Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy
Impact Level: HIGH
What to do: Should you expect a negative impact on this trade, consider hedging your trade.
Retail FX Community Outlook:
Retail Community Outlook is a statistical analysis on what the market perception is under Retail Traders like you and me, this does not include Banks and big Corporate Financial Institutions.
The Retail Community Outlook for this trade is as follows:
Around 101372 positions SHORT – 57%
Around 70390 positions LONG – 43%
This trade is LONG – we go AGAINST majority of retail traders, which is GOOD depending on where the COT analysis for this trade currently is.
Entry:
Immediate Entry at: 1.12409
Take Profit:
TP1: 1.14000 (move SL to TP1 once reached)
TP2: 1.15103
Stop Loss:
Stop Loss at around 1.11777
Good Luck – Trade Responsible
Use 1% risk per Position!
Always strive to continuously improve your trading strategy and knowledge
“Rise and Rise Again until Lambs becomes Lions”
Full acknowledgment and courtesy towards DaveFXHunter with his insight and guidance on this trade idea (and many other) I have learned more from Dave in a short time than what I could ever have learned from so-called experts all over the internet.
Please feel free to follow Dave at tradingview.com/u/DaweFXHunter/
Note
Currency Strength Indication (weekly):The USD is weaker than the EUR with a MEDIUM TO HIGH WEAKNESS against the EUR
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