Short

EURUSD Pontential Bearish Move

Updated

1.1800 is a stumbling block for EURUSD. After Powell delivered his much anticipated speech in Jackson Hole, the market witnessed a late Friday surge, but the message wasn't encouraging relative to the hawkish Fedspeak heading into Powell's remarks. The USD fell victim to a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" type of trade, sending EUR/USD to its highest level since November 2016. Although no signals were given, Powell did say that tapering of the Fed's asset purchases could be appropriate this year, contingent on upcoming key data releases, notably next week's jobs report. With job growth comparable to the recent reports (850k in June and 943k in July), the greenback will likely not appreciate as much due to the positive news on jobs. The German data will occupy most of the spotlight next week, while the NFP report and ISM prints will be the priority. However, the latest ECB minutes suggest there is an upside risk to the Bank's inflation forecasts, which should be worth noting before German CPI is released next week.

Note

Support awaits at 1.1780.

As resistance approaches 1.1810, the post-Powell high, and 1.1825, the August support level, there is a risk of price slipping off. You are going to want to watch lines 1.1860 and 1.1910.

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