Hey guys,
Very interesting situation with EUR/USD.
Fundamentally, I would say situation is more neutral to negative, most of the possible rate cuts are priced in already for USD, and there is current pressure on EUR, since they have already significantly declining inflation (more than expected). I don't see any possible significant negative events for USD, moreover, I see more chances for flight to safety because of the Evergande situation that will be due to resolve in the end of January and right after next possible US Government shutdown talks.
Technically, obvious downward channel with touch(rejection) of 200 EMA.
Crowd is already longing the pair mostly, so that's supporting the downward pressure.
The only one thing that is not supporting short is COT data, massive closure of short positions for the last 3 weeks and some long positions opened.
I am shorting it from the top of the movement, and adding some positions along the way down.
Good luck!